It’s a familiar tournament at an unfamiliar location this week with the Wells Fargo Championship being contested at TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm. Host of the event all but once since it joined the rotation in 2003, Quail Hollow Golf Club is being prepped for the Presidents Cup later in the year forcing the PGA to move closer to Washington D.C. It’s not a completely new course, though, since TPC Potomac last hosted an event in 2018 with Francesco Molinari topping the Quicken Loans National field. Molinari is well down the PGA odds board with the entire field behind betting favorite, defending champ and three-time winner Rory McIlroy. There’s never been a successful title defense at the WFC, but McIlroy is coming off a final-round record-tying 64 at the Masters and he’s finished among the top-10 in eight of his 10 WFC starts. Be sure to visit BookMaker.eu for an updated list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy +750
Corey Conners +1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000
Tony Finau +2000
Abraham Ancer +2500
Russell Henley +3000
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Keegan Bradley +3000
Gary Woodland +3000
Seamus Power +3500
Max Homa +3500
Paul Casey +3500
Marc Leishman +4000
Cameron Young +4000
Sergio Garcia +4500
Si Woo Kim +4500
Keith Mitchell +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Patrick Reed +5000
Joel Dahmen +5500
Doug Ghim +5500
Sepp Straka +5500
Jason Day +5500
Jhonattan Vegas +5500
Brian Harman +6000
Aaron Rai +6000
Kevin Streelman +6500
C.T. Pan +6500
Brandon Wu +7000
Odds Analysis
Abraham Ancer +2500
There were likely some distractions for Ancer last week leading to a disappointing finish in the Mexico Open. Getting away from that and back to an event and course that’s yielded him positive results, Ancer looks like a good bet in the outright market. He was runner-up last year at Quail Hollow and he also shares the course record at TPC Potomac. Put those two together with a more relaxed atmosphere and I have no issues backing Ancer.
Russell Henley +3000
Familiarity with the course should count for something since TPC Potomac isn’t a regular. And the intricacies of the layout need to be addressed. Henley had two nice rounds back in 2017 and two not so good trips cost him at the QNL. He’s been a more consistent player recently, though, as one of a handful of players in the field to hit more fairways while also adding distance. His versatile game should play well and he has a better understanding of how to handle it.
Marc Leishman +4000
If you want to include past results at TPC Potomac into the equation Leishman is one player we have to consider. He gained strokes in seven of eight rounds on the course and went T5-T13 at the Quicken Loans when it was held here. He’s one of the better balanced players throughout his bag, and that’s an important aspect heading into the tournament with an assortment of holes and distractions on the course. He’s also played well lately after emerging from a post-COVID slump.
Rory McIlroy +750
I backed off the big favorite last week and watched Jon Rahm go wire to wire in Mexico. McIlroy is also the prohibitive favorite this week and with an impressive resume at the WFC he should be considered. However, his eight top-10s and three titles came at Quail Hollow so he’s the least excited about the venue change. Still, he’s coming off a closing 64 at the Masters that launched him into runner-up position and he’s good enough to handle the challenge a new course brings.
Cameron Young +4000
The field is well-balanced once you get past the favorite. And backing McIlroy is a gamble since this is his first go-round at TPC Potomac. I haven’t paid much attention to Young but he’s getting harder to ignore with his strong play and solid finishes. He hasn’t competed since a T3 at the RBC Heritage, one of three podium finishes this season, and his balanced game has produced impressive finishes on some difficult courses.
Course: TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm – 7,160 yards, Par 70
TPC Potomac steps in as host in a one-year departure with Quail Hollow getting prepped for a big event in September. It’s no stranger to the Tour having hosted more than 20 tournaments in the past, most recently the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. It’s a short track at less than 7,200 yards but it more than makes up for it in difficulty. The average winning score in previous events was 11.5-under par. There is danger off the tee so expect to see plenty of different sticks used. Finding greens in regulation is a test since the greens are much smaller than Tour average. Five of the par-4 holes play 465 yards or longer and half the holes had a 20 percent bogey or worse rate in PGA events. It may look cozy, but the course can gobble up low scores.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, CBS
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