The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning open up their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday afternoon on NBC. The Bruins struggled to get past Toronto in the first round, finally prevailing in seven games, while the Lightning had little difficulty in beating New Jersey. The Lightning finished one point ahead of Boston for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Let’s look at Saturday’s Game 1 and NHL Playoff picks.
This war on the ice will go down Saturday, April 28, 2018, at 3 p.m. ET at Amalie Arena. The game will be televised live on NBC.
We'll have NHL odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the NHL Saturday schedule.
Odds Analysis
The Lightning are favored in Game 1 because they are at home. Tampa Bay is listed as a -140 favorite, with the total listed at 6. Tampa Bay is listed at -140 to win the best-of-seven games series, while the Bruins are +120. The Lightning are the better offensive team, while the Bruins are better on defense. The key for Tampa Bay is that they have the better goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy who is a Vezina Trophy finalist. The Bruins have Tuukka Rask and he struggled at times in the series against Toronto.
Boston wasn’t anything special on the road this season, as they went 22-19. They lost two of three in Toronto in the first round. The Bruins went over the total 17 times on the road in the regular season, under 23 times, with one push. They average 3.3 goals per game and give up 2.6 per contest.
Tampa Bay was a superb 29-12 at home during the regular season and they won all three home games against New Jersey in the first round. The Lightning went over the total 25 times in their 41 home games and under the total 16 times. They score about 3.5 goals per game and give up 2.9 per contest.
Special Teams
The Bruins are 4th on the power play and 3rd in penalty killing, while the Lightning are 3rd on the power play but just 28th in penalty killing.
Key Players
This series is a matchup between two of the best lines in hockey. When the Bruins win they get great play from their top line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, but if that line struggles the Bruins usually don’t win. The Lightning have Nikita Kucherov who had 10 points in five games against New Jersey. The top line of Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and J.T. Miller scored 7 times in the opening round against the Devils.
Series Notes
The Bruins won three of the four regular season meetings, but Tampa sent a clear message in the last meeting, shutting out the Bruins 4-0. Tampa players said they played well in three of the four games and proved in the last meeting that they can dominate the Bruins. This has been a lower scoring series than you might expect, as four of the last five have gone under the total, with one push. The teams have not combined to score more than six goals in a game since March of last year.
Free NHL Picks
These two teams look very even except in goal where I think the Lightning have the clear edge. Vasilevskiy has played well all season for Tampa Bay and I think he will lead them to this series win. Rask struggled at times against Toronto and it would not surprise me if he gets pulled at some point in this series. The Lightning have more scoring depth and they have a very experienced defense. I also give Tampa the edge in scoring with Cooper vs. Cassidy. I like the Lightning to win Game 1 and to win this series.
NHL Odds: Lightning 4, Bruins 1
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