The Washington Capitals are slight favorites on Thursday night, as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final on NBCSN. Home ice has not meant that much in the playoffs, including in this series, as the Capitals won the first two games in Tampa. The Lightning have looked nothing like the team that finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, while the Capitals have been excellent. Let’s look at the contest and NHL Playoff picks.
This war on the ice will go down Thursday, May 17, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena. The game will be televised live on NBCSN.
We'll have NHL odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Odds Analysis
This series was supposed to be a matchup between a Tampa Bay team that was ready to win a Stanley Cup and a Washington team that was just happy to get past Pittsburgh. That has not been the case, as the Lightning look lost, while the Capitals have been extremely focused. History is overwhelmingly on the side of the Capitals, as teams that won the first two games of the NHL conference finals on the road ended up winning the series 18 of 19 times. The only positive for Tampa is that Washington was just 3-3 on home ice in the playoffs before Tuesday’s game three in Washington. "We're here for a reason. We believe in ourselves and in this group," Tampa Bay's Victor Hedman said before Game 3, "We've got to go out there and win games on the road, and we've done that in the playoffs and we've got to do it again."
The problem for the Lightning is that they look completely out of sorts. Head coach John Cooper hasn’t made any adjustments and Tampa looks stuck in the mud. The Capitals are shutting down Tampa in the neutral zone and when Washington stays out of the penalty box the Lightning have done nothing. Even the goaltending battle has gone the way of the Capitals, as Braden Holtby has been better than Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Special Teams
The Lightning have been fine on the power play, but they haven’t had enough chances. If Tampa is going to get back in this series they will need to be extremely productive on the power play. They had the 3rd best power play in the league in the regular season. The problem for Tampa is that their penalty killing isn’t very good and Tampa simply has to win the battle of special teams because they are losing 5-on-5. Washington was 7th in the league on the power play in the regular season and 15th in penalty killing.
Series Notes
The Lightning are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings in Washington. Tampa has been pretty good on the road recently overall, winning 9 of their last 13 road games. Washington has actually been better at home against good teams, as they are 8-3 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning road mark of 60% or higher.
Looking at the total, the Over is 12-4-2 in Tampa’s last 18 road games. The Over is 6-2 in the Capitals last 8 home games. The Over is 20-7-2 in the last 29 meetings.
Free NHL Picks
When this series started I though the Lightning would have the edge but something seems wrong with Tampa. They look lost against Washington and Cooper doesn’t seem capable of changing things up. The Capitals are simply playing at a higher level right now than Tampa and they look like a team capable of winning the Stanley Cup. I will take the Capitals to win Game 4 and also play the game to go over the total.
NHL Odds: Capitals 4, Lightning 3
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