The Winnipeg Jets are slight favorites against the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night on NBC. The Jets are coming off a Game 7 win against Nashville on Thursday, while the Golden Knights have been off since eliminating San Jose. The Jets were the best home team in the NHL this season, so it is not a surprise they are favored to win Game 1 at home. Let’s look at this Saturday night contest and NHL Playoff picks.
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Odds Analysis
The Jets are listed at -145 to win Game 1 with the total at 5.5 over. The Golden Knights were 22-19 on the road during the regular season, with 22 games going over, 18 going under, with one push. They are averaging 3.3 goals per game and giving up 2.7 per contest. This will be the first time that Vegas will be starting a playoff series on the road. "With each round, it gets tougher and tougher," Vegas general manager George McPhee said. "It may not be a bad thing to start on the road this time around, something a little different."
The Jets were a superb 32-9 at home during the regular season, with 24 games going over, 15 going under, with two pushes. They are scoring 3.3 goals per game and giving up 2.6 per contest. Winnipeg head coach Paul Maurice knows that Vegas is no fluke. “If you watch a lot of hockey, they've played the game that they're playing now right from the get-go," Maurice, "It wasn't a team that got hot in the last month to make the playoffs. They've been good right from the start straight through, and if you're new to the NHL but a longtime hockey fan and you turned on the TV and didn't know that was an expansion team, you wouldn't have thought it was."
Special Teams
The Golden Knights were just above average in special teams this season, as they ranked 11th on the power play at 21% and they were 10th in penalty killing at about 81%. The Jets were very good on special teams this season, as they ranked 5th in the league on the power play at over 23% and they were 9th in penalty killing at over 81%.
The Golden Knights have relied heavily on goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to bail them out, because their defense isn’t that great. Vegas doesn’t have a great blue line and they give up a lot of shots. They are giving up 33.3 shots per game, while the Jets are giving up just 28.6 shots per game.
Series Notes
The Golden Knights won two of the three games against the Jets this season, with two of the three going over the total. The teams split their two meetings in Winnipeg.
Free NHL Picks
If the Jets were starting on the road then you might be able to make the case that they would have a bit of a letdown after beating Nashville or make the case that they could be a little weary. The Jets figure to get a huge boost from their home crowd in Game 1 on Saturday and Winnipeg was extremely tough to beat at home this season, winning 32 games and losing just nine. The only team to beat them at home in the last month was Nashville. The Golden Knights have been an amazing team and an unbelievable story, but to win this series the Golden Knights have to find a way to win at Winnipeg and that won’t be easy. I’ll take Winnipeg to win Game 1 on Saturday.
NHL Odds: Jets 4, Golden Knights 3
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