When it comes to betting on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, playing favorites isn’t sexy, but it’s usually the profitable proposition. Of course, it all depends on the money lines, and in general we tend to shy away from massive favorites simply because it takes so much to win a little. Most of you reading this aren’t the big players like Vegas Dave, and are hoping to maximizing your returns - which is how we shape our betting columns.
However, there are exceptions when it comes to betting huge favorites. We’ll stray slightly outside of MMA for the best example. When Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor fought in a boxing match, there were some sportsbooks offering “Money” at around -350. The big players jumped all over that, publicly stating that the circumstances called for betting the house on Mayweather.
Let’s hope that some of you did: any casual sports fan should’ve recognized that there was no way a rookie could take out an all-time great in his boxing debut. To be honest, Mayweather’s line should have started at around -1500, but McGregor’s loyal fan base dragged the Money’s price to ridiculously affordable levels.
Opportunities like that are rare, which is why it helps to keep up with the latest UFC line movement at BookMaker.eu. We’re usually on top of things you should be taking advantage of, though you should always assume the risks you’re taking. Live UFC betting also can help you hedge your bets on fight night, so make sure you’re logged into the sportsbook to cushion your wallet.
Let’s take a look at how the favorites performed in the month of September, where we had three fight cards.
UFC 228, Sept 8
Total fights: 12
Favorite wins: 9
Underdog wins: 40
Return on investment for betting favorites: $8.30 (6%)
Return on investment for betting underdogs: -$29.29
Average winner odds: -144
UFC Fight Night Moscow, September 15
Total fights: 12
Favorite wins: 10
Underdog wins: 2
Return on investment for betting favorites: $11.38 (9%)
Return on investment for betting underdogs: -$75.00
Average winner odds: +100
UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo
Total fights: 12
Favorite wins: 9
Underdog wins: 3
Return on investment for betting favorites: $11.86 (8%)
Return on investment for betting underdogs: -$29.70
Average winner odds: +100
Betting Analysis
Though some oddsmakers consider any favorite over -160 a “big” favorite, we generally let our chalk plays get up to -200 before we start to really consider the minimal ROI. If you bet $200 and win $100, that’s a 50% return - which would be a massive haul if you were talking about something like investing in stocks.
A 9% return isn’t that great in the world of betting, which is why it’s hard to look at the collective results of a card. More likely, you’re picking and choosing where you see great value. And this doesn’t even take into an account prop bets and round totals. You should never only look at the fighter’s money lines, as there will often be better values to play when it comes to a specific fight.
Upcoming Favorites to Consider
UFC 230, November 3
Luke Rockhold -160 vs. Chris Weidman +130
Ronaldo Souza -165 vs. David Branch +135
Both the middleweight chalk plays are somewhat risky, considering their shaky recent performances. But in Rockhold’s case, he already owns a win over Chris Weidman, who always seems to be injured. The first fight started close, but Rockhold held up well against the wrestling pressure and got the better of the standup. Weidman is generally on the downside of his career and we don’t see him evolving into a different fighter.
Souza is a little bit trickier. At 38, his physical abilities are in danger of shorting out. But he’s faced far better competition than his opponent, who is riding some hype off a knockout of Thiago Santos. That buzz extends to the sportsbook, letting you get an excellent price on a more proven favorite.
UFC 139, November 10
Joe Benavidez -155 vs. Ray Borg +125
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu!
UFC 232, December 29
Cris Justino -300 vs. Amanda Nunes +240
“Cyborg” is a special case: nobody’s come close to touching her in all the major fight promotions she’s been in. But there seem to be a lot of people that feel that Amanda Nunes is the worst possible matchup - a power puncher that can go strike-for-strike with an untested killer. We just don’t see it. While the standup might cancel out, Justino’s cardio and aggression make her an easy pick.
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