Everybody loves an underdog, but sports bettors love ‘em most of all. Because there’s nothing like getting more than a 100% return on a bet, and then bragging to all your friends about it afterward. In some cases, you can literally win thousands just by betting hundreds.
When that happens, it’s the best feeling in the world. But that’s never something you should chase. It’s easy to see a +500 money line inside the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and talk yourself into why you should play it. That’s a very risky thing to do - more often than not the results won’t be in your favor.
Where it really helps to stay updated with BookMaker.eu UFC line movement is in competitive fights. Time and time again opening favorites will become slight underdogs. This isn’t easy to predict, but there are indicators that we keep track of that will let us know if you should lock in a bet or wait. It won’t make a huge impact on the single bet, but the cumulative earnings add up.
There are rare examples where massive line movements could cost you thousands. In the most famous underdog upset in recent history, Holly Holm’s money line fluctuated from -1250 to -900. There was a case of a bigtime player taking a $100k bet at -1250, netting him $35,000 more in the big picture. Pay attention folks, because we’re always bringing you the latest from the field.
Don’t think that all your options are done after you’ve made a bet either. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is a great way to hedge your bets or even make completely new ones based on the action that’s unfolding. My personal thing is to take a look at whose cardio is giving out and betting against them.
Let’s take a look at some recent cards and go over at how betting underdogs can be profitable, but risky.
UFC on FOX 28, February 18
Total fights: 12
Favorite wins: 6
Underdog wins: 6
ROI on favorites: -$23.97
ROI on underdogs: $61 (51%)
UFC Fight Night 127, March 18
Total fights: 10
Favorite wins: 4
Underdog wins: 6
ROI on favorites: -$40.97
ROI on underdogs: $113.90 (114%)
UFC Fight Night 130, May 18
Total fights: 11
Favorite wins: 5
Underdog wins: 6
ROI on favorites: -$40.99
ROI on underdogs: $61 (55%)
Betting Analysis
UFC Fight Night 127 wasn’t by any means a big event, but it was a giant night for underdogs. With ‘dogs coming through on 60% of the fights, you would’ve more than doubled your money if you had bet all of them. Of course, that goes against how most bettors play - they pick and choose.
Plus, that doesn’t account for totals and prop bets - were much of the best values lie. Our in-depth previews account for UFC prop bets at BookMaker.eu and often advise you to take another bet over betting somebody to win straight up. You’ve got to look at all the angles to be successful in this game.
Upcoming Underdogs to Consider
UFC Fight Night 138, October 27
Anthony Smith +145 vs. Volkan Oezdemir -165
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu
Oezdemir quickly learned that there’s level to this, thanks to professor Daniel Cormier. But there’s still something about Oezdemir’s run of flash knockouts to get to this point that seems a little suspect. Anthony Smith is on a tear and a big, physical light heavyweight who can give the Swede a lot of problems.
UFC 230, November 3
Nate Diaz +169 vs. Dustin Poirier -219
Derek Brunson +215 vs. Israel Adesanya -275
Bet on UFC 230 Odds at BookMaker.eu
We see why Poirier is a huge favorite - his recent win streak is giving him tons of hype. But these wins haven’t been coming easy, and Diaz is a bad style matchup. Poirier has a habit of fighting emotionally, and nobody pisses off guys better than the Diaz bros. Plus, Nate’s unlimited cardio could force the explosive Poirier to start to crumble. If this is a five-rounder, we’d strongly consider Diaz.
Israel Adesanya looks like the second coming of Anderson Silva, but he hasn’t passed the wrestler test yet. Derek Brunson is a guy that can administer it with ill intentions - provided he doesn’t go full slugger like he’s prone to do.
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