Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (27-4, 16 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet contender Renato “Moicano” Carneiro (13-1, 6 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 144 on Saturday Feb 2, 2019 at Arena CFO in Castelao, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Does Jose Aldo have another title run in him? Despite losing three of his last five, the featherweight GOAT bounced back from two thumpings at the hands of Max Holloway with a rousing win over Jeremy Stephens in his last matchup. Now, the former champion meets No. 4 Renato Moicano in high-stakes matchup this Saturday in Brazil.
While it’s unlikely that Aldo will get another shot at the belt while it’s held by Max Holloway, it’s a much different story for his opponent. Moicano is one of the best 145-pounders that “Blessed” hasn’t beaten during his ridiculous winning streak, and a win over Aldo could propel him into a title challenge.
Though Moicano isn’t much of a trash talker, his body of work has made him impossible to ignore. An upset win over Jeremy Stephens put him on the map. He was winning a followup with Brian Ortega before getting caught late in the final round. He then handed Calvin Kattar his first career loss, and notched a first round sub of Cub Swanson in his latest outing.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Moicano as a solid favorite. Let’s take a look at your online betting options and break down the best picks. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is available during fight night to hedge your bets.
UFC Fight Night 144 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Jose Aldo: -105
Renato Moicano: -125
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -195 / +160
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Aldo 3.51 / Moicano 5.71
Accuracy: Aldo 44% / Moicano 46%
Absorbed per minute: Aldo 2.94 / Moicano 3.45
Defense: Aldo 67% / Moicano 68%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aldo 0.73 / Moicano 1.27
Takedown accuracy: Aldo 68% / Moicano 54%
Takedown defense: Aldo 92% / Moicano 76%
Submission average: Aldo 0.17 / Moicano 0.42
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Though Aldo is just 32 years old, his physical decline inside the cage has been noticeable. Not that it’s a huge dropoff, but he’s a step slower, his reaction time has gotten slightly worse and his cardio gives out sooner. Of course, fighting Max Holloway magnifies every weakness a guy has, but having trouble putting away Jeremy Stephens - somebody a prime Aldo would’ve picked apart - is a telling sign that the current version of Aldo is diminishing.
Enter Moicano. While the 29-year old entered the UFC as a submission specialist, it’s his striking that has really earned accolades. It’s not an easy task to outstrike Stephens, but Moicano held his own and came out on top without brawling. His crisp jab felled Swanson, and he was able to put his BJJ black belt to good use in finding an RNC in the subsequent scramble. Though he lacks killshot power, Moicano’s speed and footwork can really pile up the damage quickly.
It’s not likely that Moicano will have much opportunity to flex his grappling skills - nobody has been able to get Aldo down with any sort of consistency. That sets up a kickboxing match, which makes this a difficult proposition to bet on. Aldo is still has some of the fastest hands in the business, but Moicano has the edge in pace and cardio.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -195
While we lean on Moicano to win the fight, this is definitely a winnable fight for Aldo - but his price isn’t tempting enough for us throw down a bet. Instead, we’ll take the prop that this goes to the cards. Moicano is too slick and quick to get caught with a fight-ending punch, and he’s not a guy that can physically overwhelm Aldo.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 144 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 144 takes place on Saturday Feb 2, 2019 at Arena CFO in Castelao, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
