Former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (20-7, 9 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet submission specialist Michael Chiesa (14-3, 10 SUBs) at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks at BookMaker.eu now.
Anthony Pettis might never be a legitimate title contender again, despite having held the belt just four years ago and being only 31 years old. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be an important figure at 155 pounds. First, he’s got to prove that he can string together some consistent wins against ranked competition.
Coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier, Pettis will now meet No. 9 Michael Chiesa on the main card of UFC 223 on April 7. Pettis’ status as a former champ puts him on a major pay-per-view, but this is also a matchup of ranked lightweights. Chiesa’s grudge match against Kevin Lee helped raise his profile, and he’s long been a top-10 guy.
The oddsmakers opened with Pettis as a slight favorite, but the lines have shifted to make this closer to a pick’em. Let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and go over your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Anthony Pettis +105
Michael Chiesa -135
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -130, under +100
Matchup Breakdown
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with “Showtime” playing the role of dynamic kickboxer and Chiesa stepping in as dangerous submission grappler. Their career stats back this up a bit, although Pettis does have a dangerous jiu-jitsu game as well - though it’s based on quickly snatching a limb or a neck when the opportunity presents itself.
On the feet, nobody would mistake Chiesa as a sexy striker, but he is not clueless on the feet either. However, standing with a creative, athletic kicker like Pettis would expose Chiesa’s shortcomings. Chiesa is well aware of this, which is why he mainly uses his striking to get his hands on a guy.
Using a strong clinch or bodylock, Chiesa will chain together takedown attempts to force his opponents to the mat. Averaging 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, “Maverick” lands them at a 40% clip - which is actually a very decent stat in this area. He’s no Daniel Cormier, but Chiesa is a veteran of the grind.
Obviously, Pettis is going to have to keep this fight standing, but that’s been the biggest weakness of his career. One fight after losing the title to Rafael dos Anjos, Showtime met Eddie Alvarez and was pinned against the cage or to the mat for most of the fight. It was clear that he could not stop what he knew what was coming. In his last matchup, Pettis was taken down several times by Dustin Poirier, though he was able to reverse positions and escape on numerous exchanges.
UFC Odds Pick: Chiesa to win at -135
We liked this pick a lot better when Chiesa opened at +100, but the current price is still pretty good. This is a bad style matchup for Pettis, as Chiesa knows that his best path to victory will be to wrestle, and he’s got plenty of tape on how to stifle Pettis’ high-flying attack. The risk here is that it’s only three rounds, and there’s a very good chance that Pettis stays fresh and light enough to take two of them.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -130
The rounds over is a safer pick, as these guys really do not get finished very often. Chiesa is not knocking anyone out, and he’s only been subbed twice. Plus, the only time that Chiesa has been finished by strikes is when the doctor stopped his bout against Joe Lauzon, and not because he was knocked unconscious. While the over costs slightly more than picking either fighter to win, it’s a safe play.
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
