Lightweight veteran Evan Dunham (18-6, 3 KOs, 6 SUBs) will meet Olivier Aubin-Mercier (10-2, 8 SUBs) at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks at BookMaker.eu now.
“The Quebec Kid” is heading to Brooklyn. Olivier Aubin-Mercier has agreed to step in on short notice for the injured Mairbek Taisumov to meet lightweight veteran Evan Dunham on the FS1 prelims at UFC 223. Both men come into the matchup on solid unbeaten streaks, and Dunham is currently the No. 14 lightweight at 155 pounds - the most loaded division in the UFC.
This is solid chance for Mercier to sneak into the top-15 for the first time in his career. Dunham is a dude that’s fought some of the lightweight elite, making this a solid litmus test for Mercier. At 29 years old with a 6-2 UFC record, it’s time to see if he can step up and earn the biggest win of his career.
So should you take a chance on a guy that’s only had a few weeks to prep? Or do you stay safe and stick with the vet that’s hung around the top-15 for a while now. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Evan Dunham -105
Olivier Aubin-Mercier -125
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Coming Into the Scrap
Dunham is coming off a majority draw against Beneil Dariush, and prior to that he had won four straight - giving him a five-fight unbeaten streak. But let’s take a step back and look at his entire career. The fact that he’s fought 18 times under the UFC banner just goes to show you how solid Dunham is.
This is a guy who has beaten notable fighters like Joe Lauzon, Gleison Tibau and Ross Pearson. He’s also faced contenders like Rafael dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone and Edson Barboza - though Dunham lost against all of them. At this point, he’s a gatekeeper, but a very good one.
Mercier enters the matchup with three straight wins, beating Thibault Gouti, Drew Dober and Tony Martin. He’s quietly carved a solid UFC career, beating a slew of solid midcard fighters - but remains largely untested against higher caliber competition. Dunham is easily the best fighter he’s faced so far in his career.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dunham 5.46 / Mercier 2.67
Accuracy: Dunham 39.56% / Mercier 52%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dunham 3.51 / Mercier 2.67
Defense: Dunham 62.11% / Mercier 58%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dunham 1.85 / Mercier 3.14
Takedown accuracy: Dunham 32.93% / Mercier 35%
Takedowns defended: Dunham 80.56% / Mercier 83%
Submission average: Dunham 1.03 / Mercier 0.6
UFC Odds Pick: Dunham to win at -105
While Mercier is a legitimate submission threat with eight submissions in 10 career victories, nobody beats Dunham trying to dominate him on the ground. In the past five years, he has only been beaten by top-level strikers who were able to stop his clinch game and pick him apart on the feet. Mercier is an improving kickboxer, but he’s not on the level of somebody of RDA or Cowboy.
As the pressure fighter, Dunham should be able to overwhelm Mercier. With such high takedown defense between both guys, we see his taking place on the feet. In that scenario, Dunham’s aggressiveness will be difficult to handle. And if Mercier does crack him a few times, Dunham can fall back on his clinch game - which is a brutal mix of headfighting and dirty boxing.
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
