Women’s strawweight champion “Thug” Rose Namajunas (7-3, 1 KO, 6 SUBs) will rematch Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-1, 4 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks at BookMaker.eu now.
Rose Namajunas is going to have prove that her shocking upset win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk wasn’t a fluke. Closing as a +330 underdog, “Thug” Rose not only took out an undefeated champion, but she KO’d a master kickboxer with her fists in less than a round. Imagine somebody subbing Demian Maia in just a few minutes, or when Cro Cop got head kicked to oblivion by Gabriel Gonzaga.
It’s not hard to see why there are still some folks who consider this a flash KO, and a rematch between the two is the most compelling fight that can be made on the best women’s division in the UFC. This might not have been Rose’s first choice for her first title defense, but it’s the one that makes the most sense. Up to that point, Joanna was considered the second most dominant champion on the roster and was creeping into the women’s MMA GOAT conversation.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Jedrzejczyk as a clear favorite, but in the past few weeks the lines have shifted considerably in favor of Namajunas. So how should you be betting this fight? Let’s take a look at your best options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -119
Rose Namajunas -101
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -131, under +111
Betting Analysis
Jedrzejczyk opened at -200, but early action has brought her price up to -119. In the same time Namajunas has gone from +180 to -101. Obviously, the first fight is still fresh on a lot of people’s minds. But before that, the majority of fans and analysts figured Rose had little shot against a fighter who had been destroying contenders left and right.
So was this a GSP-Serra level of fluke, or something else? It could be a case of a fighter having somebody’s number too. The first point question is a little bit easier to argue. Ever since joining the UFC, Joanna has been so good she’s barely faced any real adversity.
Claudia Gadelha was able to drag her to the ground a few times before she gassed out. Karolina Kowalkiewicz knocked Joanna down once but did little else. All-world crusher Jessica Andrade could barely get her hands on her.
Joanna’s movement, hand and foot speed, takedown defense and endless gas tank made her a seemingly impossible problem to solve. Wrestlers who were strong enough to take her down couldn’t keep her there and got tuned up on the feet. Power punchers weren’t quick enough to trap her. And she ran circles around fellow strikers.
So what did Rose do differently? She used Joanna’s aggression against her, having an answer for the Polish powerhouse’s usual weapons. Using her quick hands and athleticism, Rose came over the top on jabs, made sure to connect when Joanna kicked, and never let the then-champ off the hook when she had her stunned.
While Rose might not be as technically sound as Joanna, her length and athleticism caused problems. Whether that’ll be the case again is the big question. There’s also some doubt around how well Joanna can take a punch, as she’s been knocked down a few times when her opponents have actually connected.
UFC Odds Pick: Jedrzejczyk to win at -131
Reminder: you’re playing the numbers, not the fighter. At +180, Namajunas was worth a small bet. But at the current price, we like the challenger’s value more. Jedrzejczyk is still too young to chalk up her loss to age, and her resume speaks for itself. Unlike Ronda Rousey, there isn’t really anything to expose in Joanna. Green light for a small straight bet here.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 3.5 rounds at -131
Rose had zero knockout losses before blasting Joanna, who had never been finished up to that point. While Joanna’s chin can be questioned, we’re not betting that Rose has all of a sudden developed killshot power out of nowhere. If Jedrzejczyk can survive Andrade and Gadelha, chances are good that she can get through 3.5 rounds with Rose.
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
