Women’s strawweight prospect Mackenzie Dern (6-0, 3 SUBs) will meet Amanda Cooper (3-3, 1 KO, 1 SUB) at UFC 224 on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims. Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting preview, predictions and picks below.
Mackenzie Dern is widely considered one of the best female grapplers of her generation. But based on her UFC debut, she’s got some work to do before she lives up to her hype. For all her accolades in BJJ competition - including multiple IBJJF and ADCC championships - the charismatic Dern barely eked out a split decision against journeywoman Ashley Yoder at UFC 222.
For somebody billed as “the next Ronda Rousey”, it wasn’t what we expected out of Dern against an opponent that was booked to make her look good. But she’s only 25, and we’ve seen plenty of mat wizards - like Demian Maia, Ronaldo Souza and Claudia Gadelha - find great success inside the octagon. Perhaps she can reignite the hype this Saturday at UFC 224 in Rio de Janeiro.
Dern will fight on the pay-per-view main card against Amanda Bobby Cooper, a .500 fighter with just six fights on her resume. She’s coming off a surprising knockout win over the Angela Magana, and she’ll no doubt want to bang against such an accomplished grappler.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu have Dern as a huge favorite, but she also seems vulnerable for an upset. Should you take a chance on Cooper for the big bucks? Let’s break it down.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Mackenzie Dern -240
Amanda Bobby Cooper +190
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -117, under -113
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Dern 4.67 / Cooper 3.7
Accuracy: Dern 48.95% / Cooper 44.32%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Dern 3.45 / Cooper 3.29
Defense: 63.38% / Cooper 49.27%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dern 1 / Cooper 1.42
Takedown accuracy: Dern 16.67% / Cooper 42.86%
Takedowns defended: Dern 0% Cooper 20%
Submission average: Dern 1 / Cooper 1.9
Matchup Preview
It’s a given that once Dern gets it to the ground she’s a beast. But getting it there was much too difficult against only a semi-decent wrestler in Ashley Yoder. When forced to strike, Dern looked every bit the BJJ specialist - she was sloppy, wild and inefficient with her energy. It’s clear that she needs to up her wrestling chops if she wants to be able to impose her grappling consistently.
Right now, any crisp, technical striker with good takedown defense would be Dern’s kryptonite. Is that Cooper? Possibly. She is comfortable on her feet and an active kickboxer when she’s able to keep at a distance. However, Cooper too often uses her striking as a setup to dive into clinches for a bit of dirty boxing and trips. On top, she’s a good guard passer with solid GNP, but going to the ground here would be out of the question.
UFC Odds Pick: Dern to win at -240
It’s Cooper’s 20% takedown defense that really concerns us. Oddsmakers are playing it safe here, sensing that somebody as inexperienced as Mackenzie is ripe for an upset, so her line is currently playable as a straight play. Training at the MMA Lab alongside Benson Henderson will improve her wrestling, and she should be able to get this fight to the mat.
UFC Odds Pick: Dern wins by submission at +157
Slightly riskier, but a better payout. All three of Cooper’s losses have come by submission, and she just happens to be facing one of the best to ever do it. Don’t be surprised if we see some slick jits and Cooper taps.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 224 takes place on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
