Middleweight contenders Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (25-5, 7 KOs, 14 SUBs) and Kelvin Gastelum (14-3, 7 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet at UFC 224 on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims. Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting preview, predictions and picks below.
No disrespect to Amanda Nunes, but UFC 224’s co-main event is really the matchup that most fans really only care about. This Saturday’s pay-per-view in Rio is a weak offering overall, but a middleweight clash between Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and young puncher Kelvin Gastelum is an awesome scrap between two of the best at 185 pounds.
What’s more, it’s highly likely that the winner will earn the next shot at the title. Current champion Robert Whittaker is slated to make his first title defense against Yoel Romero in less than a month at UFC 225. Speaking as a fan, it’d be nice to see Gastelum walk away with his hand raised, as he’s yet to face either Whittaker or Romero. Jacare has lost to both the champ and the No. 1 contender.
No matter what happens between these four guys, it’s undeniable that the top of the middleweight division is filled with intriguing matchups. We’ll be writing about these guys again really soon.
According the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, this looks to be an extremely competitive fight. Are there any prices that you should be taking advantage of now? Let’s break down the odds, the matchup and your best options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kelvin Gastelum +115
Ronaldo Souza -135
Fight goes to/doesn’t go to decision: +145 / -185
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Souza 2.28 / Gastelum 3.89
Accuracy: Souza 44.15% / Gastelum 44.48%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Souza 2.19 / Gastelum 2.73
Defense: Souza 63.48% / Gastelum 62.95%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Souza 3.35 / Gastelum 0.9
Takedown accuracy: Souza 44% / Gastelum 50%
Takedowns defended: Souza 58.33% / 58.49%
Submission average: Souza 1.83 / Gastelum 0.2
Things to Think About
Whittaker torched Souza by successfully stuffing all of the Brazilian’s takedown attempts and piecing him up with fast, accurate hands. Gastelum fights in very much the same style as the Aussie champ - he’s an undersized sprawl-and-brawler with slick boxing and sledgehammer power in both hands.
However, Chris Weidman had great success dragging Gastelum to the ground and pounding on him. The last thing the 26-year old American wants is to end up on the mat with one of the most accomplished BJJ practitioners in the UFC. But Weidman is a former Division I NCAA champion, Jacare doesn’t have the same level of chain wrestling to rely on.
But we shouldn’t write off Jacare’s striking either: Gastelum is an excellent boxer, but he’s not the ace that Whittaker is. The Brazilian has won plenty of standup battles against good strikers, and he hits ridiculously hard.
UFC Odds Pick: Gastelum to win at +115
Speed kills, and the younger, faster Gastelum will give Souza all sorts of problems on the feet. Souza is now 38 years old, and while he’s still fighting at a top level, it’s not going to be fun chasing around a quick, powerful puncher. We expect Gastelum’s sprawl and takedown defense to hold up here.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision at +145
This is a three-round fight, and both dudes are tough enough to take a few big licks. We love the fact that you can get underdog odds on seeing a decision. Though Jacare’s fights tend to end quickly, Gastelum is actually the best opponent he’s faced in a few years. He was blindsided by Whittaker, but he should be far more prepared for Gastelum.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 224 takes place on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
