.jpg "UFC 230 Weidman vs Souza Picks")
Former middleweight champions Chris Weidman (14-3, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet contender Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (25-6, 7 KOs, 14 SUBs) will meet at UFC 230 on Saturday, November 3, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
The MMA injury bug struck again, this time taking Luke Rockhold out of an anticipated rematch with Chris Weidman at UFC 230. Luckily, the card was stacked enough that it was an easy fix: Brazilian BJJ wizard Jacare Souza was removed from his contest with David Branch and plugged into the co-main against Weidman.
It’s not what was promised, but it’ll do. These are still two of the best 185-pounders in the world, and the winner could easily have an argument to face the winner of Whittaker-Gastelum. For Weidman, that’s an opportunity to regain the strap. In Jacare’s case, he could finally earn the chance to fight for the title - something that’s eluded him for years despite being a top 5 guy.
One of these two better make an emphatic statement, as another middleweight matchup between Israel Adesanya and Derek Brunson could produce a title contender.
Let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down how you should be betting this scrap. Remember, live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is also available if you need to hedge any of your bets - or if you see something you like while watching.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chris Weidman -185
Jacare Souza +145
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -105 / -135
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Souza 2.42 / Weidman 2.95
Accuracy: Souza 45.32% / Weidman 44.56%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Souza 2.29 / Weidman 2.99
Defense: Souza 63.48% / Weidman 52.54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Souza 3.19 / Weidman 4.01
Takedown accuracy: Souza 41.28% / Weidman 51.43%
Takedowns defended: Souza 58.33% / Weidman 73.33%
Submission average: Souza 1.77 / Weidman 1.11
Bet on Souza vs. Weidman odds at BookMaker.eu
This is an interesting pairing between a boxer/wrestler and a boxer/grappler. Weidman, of course is a former NCAA wrestling champion, with his bread and butter being takedowns and top control. He’s evolved into an excellent boxer inside the octagon, with the power to knock down opponents with both fists.
Jacare is one of the most decorated BJJ guys ever to compete in MMA. He’s one every major grappling competition there is, and that skill has translated nicely to the cage - the Brazilian has racked up 14 submissions. But like Weidman, he’s developed into a dangerous striker, and it should be noted that he has just as many TKO stoppages as submissions inside the UFC.
Outside of their tangible skills, Weidman’s cardio is far better than Jacare’s. The Brazilian is 38 years old, and we’ve seen him struggle to get through tough three-rounders. Weidman has never really struggled with conditioning even in five-rounders, but his chin seems a little more suspect, as he was brutally knocked out in three of his last four fights.
UFC Odds Pick: Weidman to win at -185
This feels like a case where their grappling skills will cancel each other out and set up a boxing match. In that scenario, we favor Weidman, who is slightly more active and less reliant on setting up a power shot. There is a danger that he gets nuked by Souza, but the Brazilian is a bit less explosive and not as dynamic as the guys Weidman has lost to.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds
Because Weidman expends so much energy trying to wrestle, it should eat up enough clock for this fight to go deep. Also, neither are high-output fighters which will prolong the contest.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 230 takes place on Saturday, November 3, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
