Undefeated middleweight prospect Israel Adesanya (14-0, 12 KOs) will meet No. 6 Derek Brunson (18-6, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC 230 on Saturday, November 3, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
Israel Adesanya has everything it takes to be a star: a cool nickname, swag and most importantly, electric striking ability. At times, he looks like Anderson Silva reborn as he bobs and weaves while lighting dudes up with highlight reel striking. After styling on Brad Tavares, the hype train is approaching full steam.
But we’ve been fooled before, and longtime MMA fans know how quickly an uber-prospect can fade (cough, cough Sage Northcutt). Especially when a highly touted striker has yet to face a guy that can really test his wrestling. This Saturday, Adesanya could get just that when he meets Derek Brunson - a DII All-American who happens to be an explosive knockout artist in his own right.
It’s not a coincidence that Adesanya is on the same card that features the top middleweights in the UFC. If he can make a statement here, put him on the fast track to a title shot. This is the money fight era, and the owners are desperate for new stars to help line their pockets. Adesanya could be one of those guys.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are getting behind Adesanya, making him a big favorite against the veteran Brunson. We think that gives you a solid opportunity. Also, if your original bet isn’t looking so hot, live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is available so you can hedge your plays. Now let’s break it down.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Derek Brunson +250
Israel Adesanya -335
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +180 / -210
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Brunson 3.15 / Adesanya 4.89
Accuracy: Brunson 45.12% / Adesanya 55.21%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Brunson 2.55 / Adesanya 2.22
Defense: Brunson 50.92% / Adesanya 71.12%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Brunson 2.88 / Adesanya 0
Takedown accuracy: Brunson 32.14% / Adesanya 0%
Takedowns defended: Brunson 100% / Adesanya 81.82%
Submission average: Brunson 0.64 / Adesanya 0.31
Bet on Brunson vs. Adesanya at BookMaker.eu
There’s something I noticed when these guys were jawing off at a recent press conference: Brunson kept bringing up how skinny Adesanya was. Maybe I’m reading too far in between the lines here, but that sounds like somebody who is pretty confident they can wrap their hands around the waist and impose a takedown game honed by years of high level collegiate wrestling.
And if Greg Jackson is smart, he’s drilling into Brunson’s head that under no circumstances does he actually try and throw down with Adesanya. That could be an issue, as Brunson has had baffling moments where all he wanted to do was brawl. He’s far more patient now, as Jackson-Wink has made him develop into a guy that sits back and waits to launch fight-ending counters. Still, even with his string of recent knockouts that’s not the route he wants to take.
Keep a really close eye on how much Brunson commits to wrestling. Adesanya can’t tee off if he’s pressed into the cage or constantly fighting off takedown attempts. So far, The Last Stylebender has put up stellar 81% takedown defense, but Brunson’s the best wrestler he’s faced yet.
UFC Odds Pick: Brunson to win at +270
This is a price we can’t pass up, especially since we know that Brunson has the tools and the coaching to beat Adesanya. There’s a risk that he gets drawn into a brawl, but he could very well win two out of three rounds with takedowns and top control.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 230 takes place on Saturday, November 3, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
