Featherweight champion Max Holloway (20-4, 10 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet veteran Frankie Edgar (23-6, 7 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC 240 on Saturday, July 27, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
After a failed bid at becoming a double champ, Max Holloway is back to defending the 145-pound title. This Saturday, the Hawaiian makes his third featherweight title defense against former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.
It’s a matchup that’s taken a few tries to come to fruition. In early 2018, Edgar was tabbed as the next challenger for Holloway, only to see the champ pull out of a scheduled UFC 222 meeting with an injury. You know what happens next: Edgar elected to face Brian Ortega instead, then got airlifted by an uppercut from hell.
But a win over Cub Swanson, a Hall of Fame resume and loads of patience has put Edgar in line for a second shot at the featherweight crown. Unfortunately, he’s got to beat a dude who has won 13 straight in the weight class to get it. But any MMA fan will tell you that you never count Frankie out of a fight, no matter how much the odds are stacked against him.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at the online sportsbook and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu lets you hedge your bets between rounds as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Frankie Edgar +280
Max Holloway -385
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +155 / -195
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Holloway 6.9 / Edgar 3.59
Accuracy: Holloway 46% / Edgar 40%
Absorbed per minute: Holloway 4.03 / Edgar 2.22
Defense: Holloway 64% / Edgar 70%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Holloway 0.32 / Edgar 2.47
Takedown accuracy: Holloway 83% / Edgar 33%
Takedown defense: Holloway 83% / Edgar 65%
Submission average: Holloway 0.45 / Edgar 0.37
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
Holloway’s last fight, a decision loss to Dustin Poirier, marked the first time in a long time that we had seen the Hawaiian undergo serious adversity. Every time Blessed tried to get rolling with his trademark non-stop flurries, Poirier blasted him with big counters that stopped the assault in its tracks. While Edgar has the timing and counterpunching to disrupt Holloway’s rhythm, he has neither the size nor power to do the damage that Poirier did.
The big question here is whether Edgar will be able to wrestle Holloway - the matchup takes on a totally different complexion if he can score takedowns. To the eye, it doesn’t seem like a viable path to victory; Holloway is just too big and strong to be bullied by a guy that could realistically compete at bantamweight. Edgar might have a stellar takedown average, but Holloway’s 83% takedown defense should hold stout.
So that brings us to a kickboxing match. Hypothetically, this should tilt the fight in the champ’s favor: he is taller, longer, younger and far more active. Edgar’s footwork should make this an interesting chase, but he’s going to have a lot of problems landing significant combinations in his boxing range.
UFC Odds Pick: Holloway to win at -385
There really aren’t many realistic paths to victory for Edgar, who is smaller, older and a much lower-output fighter than the champ. Edgar doesn’t have the killshot power nor the strength to stop the coming onslaught.
Alternate Pick: Fight doesn’t go the distance
The safe pack is Holloway to win straight up, for all the reasons outlined above. We feel good enough about the pick to make it a parlay booster. If you’re looking for a better payout, consider the prop for the fight ending before the final bell. Edgar is as tough as they come, but once Holloway gets rolling we’re not so sure he can hold up against the onslaught.
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