Lightweight veteran Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-4, 1 KO, 8 SUBs) will meet prospect Arman Tsarukyan (5 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC 240 on Saturday, July 27, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
22-year old Arman Tsarukyan’s UFC debut did not go as expected. Entering the octagon as a 13-1 prospect the Russian dropped a decision loss to the always-tough Islam Makhachaev. This Saturday, Tsarukyan gets his second chance at a win in the big show when he meets Olivier Aubin-Mercier in Edmonton.
Mercier will attempt to bounce back from a two-fight skid, losing by unanimous decision to Alex Hernandez and Gilbert Burns. Prior to the slide, the French-Canadian made some noise with a four-fight winning streak (with three stoppages) that saw him beat good fighters like Drew Dober, Anthony Rocco Martin and Evan Dunham. The 30-year old’s recent losses puts his ceiling below the upper lightweight class, but it’s clear that his floor is pretty high as well.
Still, Tsarukyan is the guy you want to keep an eye on. The fact that the UFC thought to match him up with top rising fighter like Makhachev says a lot - many thought that he should have been facing a ranked fighter instead. The kid has a lot of promise at 22 years old, but he’ll have to learn fast as he’s not getting easy fights to kick off his UFC career.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at the online sportsbook, where BookMaker has opened with Tsarukyan as the favorite. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds in case you need to hedge any of your bets.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Olivier Aubin-Mercier +179
Arman Tsarukyan -230
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -145 / +105
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Mercier 2.59 / Tsarukyan 0
Accuracy: Mercier 51% / Tsarukyan N/A
Absorbed per minute: Mercier 2.95 / Tsarukyan 0
Defense: Mercier 55% / Tsarukyan N/A
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Mercier 2.63 / Tsarukyan 0
Takedown accuracy: Mercier 35% / Tsarukyan N/A
Takedown defense: Mercier 65% / Tsarukyan N/A
Submission average: Mercier 0.57 / Tsarukyan 0
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The fact that a youngster like Tsarukyan is being matched up with Mercier in just his second fight says a lot about how deep the lightweight division is. While the Canadian’s game is absent of flash, he is a tough, talented judoka who can handle himself in any area of the fight. His striking game is a bit clunky, but it’s effective in getting him into the clinch where he excels - Mercier knocked out the gritty Evan Dunham in this position.
However, when matched against upper tier fighters like Alex Hernandez and Gilbert Burns, Mercier has found success much harder to come by. Hernandez, a powerful young wrestler, simply overwhelmed him, while Burns’ athleticism and BJJ was too much for Mercier to handle. Tsarukyan is a strong young wrestler himself, but the jury is out on whether he is as skilled as Hernandez - a decorated collegiate athlete.
What we do know is that Tsarukyan has beaten UFC vets like Junior Assuncao and Felipe Olivieri in regional competition, and he’s got some impressive knockouts in his highlight reel. It’ll be much harder to notch KOs in the UFC, but he can always fall back on his wrestling - he already shows great chain attempts, transitions and back takes. In time, we might be looking at a top 10 fighter.
UFC Odds Pick: Tsarukyan to win at -230
It’s always a risk picking a young prospect against a hardened vet like Mercier, but Tsarukyan has a good matchup here. Mercier’s striking shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance, and the Russian’s natural strength should be the differencemaker in the grappling exchanges.
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