Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier (22-1, 10 KOs, 5 SUBs) will defend his title in a rematch with Stipe Miocic (18-3, 14 KOs) at UFC 241 on Saturday, August 17, 2019 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
For over a year now, Stipe Miocic has been telling anyone who would listen that he would beat Daniel Cormier 9 out of 10 times. It was just that one time when they actually fought that he lost the heavyweight title. This Saturday, he gets a chance to back up his words.
It wasn’t the matchup that heavyweight champion Comier was looking for, but it’s the one he’ll get after cash cow Brock Lesnar appeared to retire for good. After tossing around a few other names, Miocic gets his shot simply because nobody else is ready for the Daddest Man on the Planet just yet.
In their first matchup, Cormier needed just one round to get into rhythm and start marching down Miocic. It honestly was a little surprising to see how quickly the AKA captain wore down the Clevelander, who had at that point put together the longest heavyweight title reign in UFC history. It was a masterclass performance, but also too quick for many to definitively decide who the better fighter is. At this point, the public opinion favors Cormier, but it’s highly unlikely that Moicic succumbs so quickly again.
The UFC odds at the online sportsbook opened with DC as the -140 favorite, with Miocic at +120 on the comeback. Those are competitive prices, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this end up close to pick’em odds come fight night. Speaking of which, live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is available if you want to make picks between rounds.
Let’s take a look at the matchup break down and go over a few solid betting plays.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Daniel Cormier -145
Stipe Miocic +115
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +255 / -365
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Cormier 3.83 / Miocic 4.76
Accuracy: Cormier 51% / Miocic 51%
Absorbed per minute: Cormier 3.66 / MIocic 2.96
Defense: Cormier 58% / Miocic 62%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Cormier 1.93 / Miocic 2.38
Takedown accuracy: Cormier 46% / Miocic 38%
Takedown defense: Cormier 78% / Miocic 75%
Submission average: Cormier 0.74 / Miocic 0
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision at -365
This is probably the easiest pick to make, though it’s the priciest of the major prop bets. Five of Miocic’s past six fights have ended in the first round, and he’s turned into one of the more consistent knockout artists at heavyweight. Cormier has earned 15 finishes in 22 career victories, and his past five fights have ended before the final cards. While this pick isn’t cheap, it’s still playable.
UFC Odds Pick: Cormier to win at -145
To be honest, I thought Miocic would win their first fight under the assumption that he was just too big and well-versed for Cormier. So imagine the shock when Cormier got into a serious groove and drained Miocic’s gas tank in less than five minutes.
It’s easy to overlook Cormier at heavyweight: he’s 40 years old, barely 5’10” and has got major dad bod. He easily fails the eye test when he stands next to legitimate big men like Miocic and chiseled comic book figures like Francis Ngannou. But his record speaks for itself: in 24 career fights, he’s only lost to all-time great Jon Jones. That’s a resume that includes wins over Rumble Johnson, Alexander Gustafsson, a prime Josh Barnett and the TRT version of Bigfoot Silva.
Miocic has the benefit of already facing Cormier and knowing what’s coming. Because at this point, we really don’t see a drastic change in how the champ approaches this fight. Miocic is too big for him to take down consistently, so he’ll have to settle in for the constant pressure and quick hands. I’m not going to doubt the champ again, given how affordable his price is.
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