No. 8 middleweight Derek Brunson (19-7, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 10 Ian Heinisch (13-1, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC 241 on Saturday, August 17, 2019 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Ian Heinisch might not be a recognizable name at 185 pounds, but the 30-year old has quietly reeled off five straight wins - including all three of his fights under the UFC banner. With wins over solid mid-level guys in Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Jr., Heinisch has quickly earned the right to meet one of the division’s more well-known gatekeepers.
Enter Derek Brunson. The 35-year old vet has managed to maintain a top-10 ranking for years without ever seriously becoming a contender. That’s led to some high-profile matchups against Anderson Silva, Ronaldo Souza and Anderson Silva. Unfortunately for Brunson, he lost to all of them by first-round knockout. But he’s also somebody whose put together a previous five-fight winning streak and has victories over guys like Uriah Hall and Lyoto Machida, so he’s clearly in that tier just below the elite.
If Heinisch wants to be taken seriously, Brunson is a guy he needs to beat. At 13-1, “The Hurricane” is considered a top prospect, and beating such a respected vet would vault him into another tier. The middleweight division is already top-heavy, but it sure could use some new faces at the top. For what it’s worth, Heinisch opened as a clear -200 favorite, with Brunson at +158 on the comeback.
Let’s break down the UFC odds at the online sportsbook and analyze a few solid plays. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is also available if you want to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Derek Brunson +143
Ian Henisch -180
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -105 / -135
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Brunson 3.12 / Heinisch 3.67
Accuracy: Brunson 42% / Heinisch 57%
Absorbed per minute: Brunson 3.04 / Heinisch 2.07
Defense: Brunson 50% / Heinisch 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Brunson 2.35 / Heinisch 1
Takedown accuracy: Brunson 24% / Heinisch 14%
Takedown defense: Brunson 100% / Heinisch 50%
Submission average: Brunson 0.54 / Heinisch 2
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Heinisch has one of the most amazing backstories of anybody on the roster: drug trafficking charges led to a stint in a Spanish prison, where he took up the sport of wrestling. Now, he’s a top-10 fighter in the UFC and a hollywood script waiting to happen.
Oh, and he’s also turning out to be an excellent fighter. His game is simple, but exceedingly tough on opponents: a combination of power punches and aggressive wrestling. While he might not have the knockout power or technique of some of the best middleweights, he does have the grittiness and cardio to quickly grind down opponents. So far, he’s passed two very tough UFC tests with flying colors.
Brunson will administer the Wrestling Test, which is something that every up-and-coming prospect must face. If Brunson can’t take Heinisch down, he’s also an athletic counter-striker with killshot power - like a slightly lesser version of a prime Rashad Evans. The problem with Brunson is that his fight IQ has always been lacking - instead of pressing his advantages he tries to force tactics that might not work. To his credit, he’s gotten better at fighting smarter as he ages.
UFC Odds Pick: Brunson to win at +143
Truth be told, this is a dangerous matchup for Heinisch. Brunson might not be elite, but he is certainly one of the better fighters in the division - and Heinisch doesn’t have the tools of a blue chip prospect. This one could be very close, but given that Brunson is technically the better wrestler and well-equipped to handle aggressive strikers, we like the vet at underdog odds.
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