Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (27-0, 8 KOs, 9 SUBs) will meet interim champion Dustin Poirier (25-5, 12 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC 242 on Saturday, September 7, 2019 at The Arena at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 2pm ET.
It’s time for Khabib Nurmagomedov to get back to business. The lightweight champion will return from a suspension (reminder: he lost his mind after beating Conor McGregor by jumpkicking into the crowd) this Saturday in a title unification bout with interim titleholder Dustin Poirier.
Expect “The Eagle” to land to a hero’s welcome. He’s headlining a card in Abu Dhabi, which is in the United Arab Emirates. It’s well-known that Nurmagomedov is a strict Muslim, and he’ll be fighting in an MMA-crazed country with a dominant Muslim population. Their chosen one also happens to have a flawless 27-0 record, the lightweight title and the distinction of having never really been tested in a pro MMA fight. He’s just that freaking good.
Dustin Poirier had to go through a murderer’s row of lightweights to earn the interim title. His current six-fight unbeaten streak includes finishes of Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. Most recently, he handed featherweight champion Max Holloway his first loss in 14 fights. After hoisting the interim strap, he stated that the belt was “paid for in blood.” Given the bloody nature of Poirier’s fights, it was an awesomely accurate declaration.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Nurmagomedov as a heavy -375 favorite, giving Poirier +280 on the comeback. That’s not surprising given how dominant the Russian has been - we’re already looking at one of the best ever. Let’s break down the matchup along with your betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make in-play wagers as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Poirier +305 vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov -425
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +125 / -165
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Nurmagomedov 4.29 / Poirier 5.75
Accuracy: Nurmagomedov 49% / Poirier 49%
Absorbed per minute: Nurmagomedov 1.70 / Poirier 4.08
Defense: Nurmagomedov 66% / Poirier 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Nurmagomedov 5.09 / Poirier 1.63
Takedown accuracy: Nurmagomedov 44% / Poirier 37%
Takedown defense: Nurmagomedov 85% / Poirier 69%
Submission average: Nurmagomedov 0.6 / Poirier 1.2
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
As is the case with any Khabib fight, the big question here is whether Poirier can stay on the feet. So far, nobody else has been able to do so (with the exception of a juiced up Glieson Tibau a long time ago).
It’s not hyperbole to say that it only takes one takedown for the Russian to dictate the outcome of the fight. What Khabib does with a single takedown is incredible: he simultaneously suffocates his opponents and brutalizes them with GNP. Every takedown attempt afterwards becomes easier.
Poirier has great takedown defense, but it’s not impenetrable either. If he ends up on the mat, he better pray that he can get back up quickly - Khabib is just too good from the top ride to have to be concerned about submission attempts. The interim champ will have to get some monster hits in quickly before he gets pressed into the cage, but Poirier does have the ability and athleticism to land a diverse arsenal of killshots.
UFC Odds Pick: Nurmagomedov to win at -425
To be honest, the only ways we see Poirier winning is if he notches a flash knockout or Khabib for some odd reason decides that he wants to win by kickboxing. Even if the Russian decides that this is a good time to show that he can win with striking, Poirier has proven susceptible to big shots in the past. The most likely outcome is that this fight follows the same pattern as all of Khabib’s fights: takedown, control, GNP, rinse, repeat. At this price, we recommend Khabib to win as a parlay booster.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision -165
Dustin Poirier will have to be extremely aggressive to get the win, and every Khabib fight usually becomes an exercise in whether a judge should stop the fight or not. While this prop bet has near pick’em odds, both guys are good enough that they should be able to find a finish in 25 minutes.
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