No. 3 women’s bantamweight Holly Holm (12-5, 8 KOs) will rematch No. 6 Raquel Pennington (10-7, 1 KO, 3 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, October 5, 2019 at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, Australia. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
The last time Holly Holm came to Melbourne, Australia, she pulled off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history and became a star. That was four years ago, when “The Preacher’s Daughter” schooled Ronda Rousey - who had been considered untouchable at the time - and then head kicked her into oblivion.
The stakes won’t be as high this time around when she meets Raquel Pennington in a rematch of their 2015 encounter. Holm is coming off a failed title bid against Amanda Nunes, suffering the first knockout loss of her career. But because the bantamweight division is so thin, she very much remains a contender - and as it’s biggest star Holm’s name carries a lot of significance for fighters looking to earn a signature win.
Pennington also suffered the wrath of Nunes in a 2018 title shot, succumbing to elbows and punches after getting battered for the better part of five rounds. She subsequently lost her next bout to top contender Germaine de Randamie, but was able to bounce back with a split decision against Irene Aldana this past July.
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Holly Holm - Sign in for odds
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Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: Sign in for odds
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Holm 2.82 / Pennington 3.42
Striking accuracy: Holm 34% / Pennington 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Holm 2.8 / Pennington 3.31
Striking defense: Holm 57% / Pennington 62%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Holm 0.56 / Pennington 1.16
Takedown accuracy: Holm 31% / Pennington 28%
Takedown defense: Holm 78% / Pennington 64%
Submission average: Holm 0.09 / Pennington 0.95
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In their first matchup, Holm took a close split decision, controlling the striking ranges for two rounds before getting droped by Pennington in the third. It was a case where the victor scored more points, but the loser did more damage. Pennington was finally able to break through in the final frame, but time ran out on her comeback.
After that fight, Pennington reeled off four straight wins, evolving from a rugged brawler into a more well-rounded fighter. However, she was clearly a few levels beneath Nunes and a loss to GDR exposed her lack of athleticism. The fight against Aldana showed that she still has a place in the division’s second tier, and she is much better equipped to deal with Holm’s technical style.
Holm is very much the same fighter that defeated Ronda Rousey: she’s at her best when she’s always reacting to aggressive opponents. Her left high kick remains her best weapon, but the 37-year old’s patience is also one of her biggest strengths - she will never divert from a stick-and-move game plan, only opening up when an opportunity presents itself. For this reason, this is a solid matchup against Pennington, a fighter that never stops coing forward.
UFC Odds Picks: Holm to win
Holm might be hitting her late 30s, but her style holds up well against aging. While she might not have the physical strength of her prime, Pennington doesn’t have the power to bully her around. A striking matchup favors the longer Holm, who once again should win the majority of the rounds.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision
This isn’t a great price, but it’s a safe enough bet to make as a parlay booster. Neither woman has real knockout power, and Pennington doesn’t have the wrestling to exploit Holm’s weak defensive grappling. This one goes to the judges’ scorecards.
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