Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (20-4, 9 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet undefeated interim champion Israel Adesanya (17-0, 13 KOs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, October 5, 2019 at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, Australia. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
It’s time to crown an undisputed middleweight champion. Robert Whittaker is back from a life-threatening injury, but during his time away Israel Adesanya emerged as an interim champion with a thrilling victory over Kelvin Gastelum. This Saturday, Adesanya travels to Whittaker’s homeland of Australia in hopes of striking gold in hostile territory.
The matchup marks Whittaker’s second title defense, but the first time during his championship reign that he’s not fighting Yoel Romero. Bobby Knuckles beat the Cuban to earn the vacant middleweight strap, and successfully defended it in a rematch after Romero notched a second shot in a title eliminator against Luke Rockhold. Both fights were super close - and Fight of the Year contenters - with Whittaker surviving nuclear blitzes by the skin of his teeth only to take control and earn decision wins.
Adesanya’s 17-0 record has generated a ton of hype, but most of the MMA world agrees that “The Last Stylebender” also has the “it” factor. With his flashy fighting style inside the cage and serious swag outside of it, Adesanya certainly has the tools to be a superstar. It helped that he was smoking dudes like Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson and Anderson Silva. However, Gastelum brought Adesanya back to earth by bringing the pressure, landing hard shots and forcing the interim champ to dig deep.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Whittaker as a slight favorite, and he’s hovered around the same range since early August. Let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and go over your best betting options. Live UFC bets can be made during the fight with lines updated in real time.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Israel Adesanya -115
Robert Whittaker -115
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +145 / -185
Signficant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Whittaker 4.82 / Adesanya 4.47
Striking accuracy: Whittaker 40% / Adesanya 53%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Whittaker 3.65 / Adesanya 2.07
Striking defense: Whittaker 61% / Adesanya 69%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average per 15 minutes: Whittaker 0.37 / Adesanya 0
Takedown accuracy: Whittaker 57% / Adesanya -
Takedown defense: Whittaker 84% / Adesanya 85%
Submission average: Whittaker 0 / Adesanya 0.22
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We know one thing for sure: this is going to be a striking battle, as both men do their best work on the feet and neither relies on offensive wrestling. Adesanya has yet to even attempt a takedown in six UFC fights.
So who has the edge in kickboxing match? In terms of physical tools, Adesanya wins the eye test. At 6’4”, he towers over the 5’11” Whittaker, and Stylebender’s long limbs and kicking game lets him fight even longer than his height. The Aussie’s durability and cardio is more proven, as he not only survived some massive hits from Romero, but turned up the volume after recovering.
Adesanya’s fight against Gastelum is probably why Whittaker gets the nod as a slight favorite from online oddsmakers. The smaller Gastelum made Adesanya uncomfortable by pressing forward and forcing exchanges at shorter ranges. There were a few moments where Stylebender were wobbled, but he recovered well enough to pull away and pile it on in the fifth. It’s not inaccurate to say that Whittaker fights like a better version of Gastelum: he applies a lot of pressure, has better cardio and hits just as hard.
UFC Odds Picks: Adesanya to win at -115
We like the fact that you can get even money odds on Adesanya. While he might struggle to keep Whittaker off him, we saw against Gastelum that he can rack up damage while backpedaling and sidestepping, and that he had the championship mettle to turn it up in the fifth to win a decisive victory. The Last Stylebender’s range will probably be the biggest differencemaker, as he’ll have opportunities to earn points while Whittaker comes forward.
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