Marlon Moraes is favored against Jose Aldo at UFC 245 Saturday, December 14 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Moraes is 22-6-1 in his career, while Aldo is 28-5 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 245, with the headliner a bout between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card, with four on ESPN2 and four on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Moraes and Aldo and UFC picks.
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Marlon Moraes (22-6-1, 4-2 UFC)
Moraes came into the UFC with a record of 18-5-1 and he has four wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated John Dodson by split decision, Aljamain Sterling by KO, Jimmie Rivera by KO, and Raphael Assunção by guillotine choke submission; while losing to Raphael Assunção by split decision and Henry Cejudo by TKO. Moraes has been a pro since 2007 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has 13 first round finishes.
Moraes said this to bloodyelbow.com about his upcoming fight against Aldo, “Win or lose, there is always pressure in the UFC. If you don’t want to live under pressure, you better change professions. I like to feel that, I like being challenged. I know that many people in this division did not want this fight. I was one of the few who stepped up. If he wants to drop down and be the champion, it makes total sense for him to fight a challenger. When we were negotiating, the UFC said it had been hard, because many people did not want to fight him, because of who he is. I can’t deny a challenge. I accepted and will always accept to fight anyone who puts me up there.”
Jose Aldo (28-5, 10-4 UFC)
Aldo came into the UFC with a record of 18-1 and he has 10 wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has two wins and three losses. He defeated Jeremy Stephens by TKO and Renato Moicano by TKO; while losing to Max Holloway twice, once by TKO in the third round and once by TKO in the third round, and to Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision. Aldo has been a pro since 2004 and he has 17 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Moraes 3.41 / Aldo 3.45
Striking Accuracy: Moraes 38% / Aldo 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Moraes 3.63/ Aldo 3.14
Defense: Moraes 58% / Aldo 65%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Moraes 0.30/ Aldo 0.67
Takedown Accuracy: Moraes 16% / Aldo 65%
Takedowns defended: Moraes 66% / Aldo 92%
Submission average: Moraes 0.6 / Aldo 0.2
UFC Picks
The question in this one is just how healthy Aldo is. If he is at full strength then he could be really good at 135 pounds. Moraes looked good for a while against Cejudo but then couldn’t close him out. I am really surprised the odds on this fight are so high, as I think Aldo has a decent chance to win this fight. I will take the plus price on Aldo in what should be an excellent fight.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Welterweight - Kamaru Usman -200 vs. Colby Covington
Featherweight - Max Holloway -180 vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Women's Bantamweight - Amanda Nunes -285 vs. Germaine de Randamie
Bantamweight - Marlon Moraes -200 vs. José Aldo
Bantamweight - Petr Yan -500 vs. Urijah Faber
Preliminary Card (ESPN2)
Welterweight - Geoff Neal -250 vs. Mike Perry
Women's Bantamweight - Ketlen Vieira -170 vs. Irene Aldana
Middleweight - Ian Heinisch -145 vs. Omari Akhmedov
Welterweight - Matt Brown -360 vs. Ben Saunders
Early Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Featherweight - Chase Hooper -120 vs. Daniel Teymur
Flyweight - Kai Kara-France -165 vs. Brandon Moreno
Women's Flyweight - Viviane Araujo -180 vs. Jessica Eye
Middleweight - Oskar Piechota -125 vs. Punahele Soriano
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