Former bantamweight champion Holly Holm (12-5, 8 KOs) will rematch Raquel Pennington (10-7, 1 KO, 3 SUBs) at UFC 246 on Saturday, January 18, 2020 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Holly Holm might be one of the most popular woman fighter in the UFC, but she’s fallen on hard times lately. Stuck in a 2-5 slide, “The Preacher’s Daughter” will look to bounce back from a first-round knockout loss to Amanda Nunes in a title fight this past July. Standing across from her will be Raquel Pennington - who Holm bested in February 2015.
The fact that Holm is in the co-main event of a Conor McGregor card says a lot about her starpower, but no amount of name recognition is immune to losing. In her defense, all of her losses have come against top fighters - like Cris Cyborg, GDR and Shevchenko - but at some point she’s got to string together wins to justify the big fights she gets.
That’s why this Saturday’s matchup with Pennington is such a dangerous one. A loss to a midlevel fighter like Raquel could take years to recover from. That’s not a knock against Pennington, who gutted out a split decision against Irene Aldana at UFC on ESPN 4. Prior to consecutive losses to Nunes and GDR, Pennington had actually pieced together a four-fight win streak. Still, her No. 5 rating is mainly due to the thin nature of the division rather than her skills.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online bets. Live UFC betting is available at the online sportsbook to hedge any of your plays during the fight as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Holly Holm -132
Raquel Pennington +102
FIght goes/doesn’t go to decision: -485 / +350
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Holm 2.82 / Pennington 3.39
Striking accuracy: Holm 34% / Pennington 45%
Strikes absorbed per minute Holm 2.83 / Pennington 3.33
Striking defense: Holm 57% / Pennington 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average per 15 minutes: Holm 0.55 / Pennington 1.14
Takedown accuracy: Holm 31% / Pennington 26%
Takedown defense: Holm 79% / Pennington 64%
Submission average: Holm 0.1 / Pennington 0.9
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There’s not much to glean from their first matchup: it was Holm’s UFC debut and she eked out a split decision win where neither woman put forth much offense. Since then, it’s been a rollercoaster for her as she went on to win the belt and face almost every major fighter in the bantam- and featherweight divisions.
Now 38, Holm is largely the same fighter she’s always been. A stick-and-move stylist, she’s at her best when countering more aggressive opponents, landing combinations and hiding a lethal leg kick. Her grappling has always been a weakness, but she masks it behind excellent takedown defense and good size for the division. While she’s an excellent striker, Holm can be beaten on the feet, as Shevchenko and De Randamie proved.
Pennington is one of those women’s fighters that seem to win on grit alone, and she proved her ruggedness by surviving for four and a half rounds with Nunes pummeling her. Steadily evolving as a fighter, “Rocky” is much more well-rounded than the sloppy brawler we saw just a few years ago. Still, her lack of athleticism gives her a clear ceiling - Pennington doesn’t have the quickness nor stopping power to really make her a finishing threat. What she does have is aggressiveness, which she can use to win on points.
UFC Odds Pick: Holm to win at -132
Holm really has trouble against athletic fighters and explosive hitters. Pennington is neither of those, which should lead to a lot of fruitless chasing in this matchup. While Holm is vulnerable on the mat, Pennington doesn’t have the wrestling to really threaten her in that area either. This should be a clear victory for Holm, and we recommend a sizeable bet at this price.
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