Lightweight superstar Conor McGregor (21-4, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-13, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) at UFC 246 on Saturday, January 18, 2020 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
The UFC’s biggest superstar is back in action this Saturday. However, the focus seems to be more on what Conor McGregor will do after his UFC 246 main event with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
From the start, fans have seen this as a tuneup fight of sorts for the Irishman. Online oddsmakers have treated it as such, opening with McGregor as a large -235 favorite. Since early January, his price has steadily dropped, plummeting nearly 100 points to -320. We don’t expect that to change this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see a close in the mid -300 range.
For what it’s worth, the media, Dana White and McGregor’s team have largely been overlooking Cowboy. White speculated that McGregor might fight Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt. MMA sites are trying to plot his 2020 course, whether it means Khabib, Nate or maybe even Gaethje.
We get it: beating Cowboy right now really doesn’t do much for McGregor’s career. It’s a good enough win to justify a bigger fight, making this an ideal springboard for a new decade - how odd would it be for McGregor to only fight Cowboy this year? It’s the fights after this one that will be the money fights.
So is Cowboy a sitting duck, or is the lack of attention make him a live ‘dog? Let’s check the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down all your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available during the fight as well.
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Conor McGregor -350
Donald Cerrone +260
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +450 / -675
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: McGregor 5.27 / Cerrone 4.34
Striking accuracy: McGregor 48% / Cerrone 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: McGregor 4.43 / Cerrone 4.23
Striking defense: McGregor 55% / Cerrone 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: McGregor 0.75 / Cerrone 1.21
Takedown accuracy: McGregor 62% / Cerrone 36%
Takedown defense: McGregor 70% / Cerrone 73%
Submission average: McGregor 0 / Cerrone 1.3
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
Cowboy’s lost two straight coming into the matchup, but what’s really alarming is how he lost: he was battered so thoroughly by Tony Ferguson that the doctor had to stop the fight. Then Justin Gaethje took one round to send him to the shadow realm. Zoom out and you can see that Cerrone has lost six of his past 10, and he was KO’d in five of those defeats. This is a problem: McGregor has killshot power against dudes without cracked chins.
On top of that, Cowboy historically has problems against southpaws and pressure fighters. McGregor is both. The expectation here is that the former two-division champion marches forward, weaves through incoming fire and blast through his opponent with ease. Unfortunately for Cowboy, it’s a very plausible outcome.
There are a few reasons to believe that Cowboy can pull off an upset: for starters, this fight takes place at 170 - a division where Cowboy had a ton of success. Cerrone’s coaches seem to have the right gameplan in mind, stating that “we just have to worry about a left hand and that first round.” It’s a broad generalization, but one that rings true nonetheless. Cowboy’s underrated wrestling could also come into play here against a fighter who hasn’t fared so well on the mat in the past.
UFC Odds Pick: McGregor to win by TKO/KO at -235
UFC Odds Pick: McGregor to win inside the distance -250
McGregor’s straight up win price is too expensive for our taste. Betting him to win by TKO isn’t cheap, but it’s far more affordable and takes into consideration that McGregor has only been to decision just twice in 25 career fights.
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