Heavyweight knockout artist Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (22-7, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet former light heavyweight Ilir Latifi (14-7, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC 247 on Saturday, February 8, 2019 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Ilir Latifi picked a helluva matchup for his heavyweight debut. This Saturday, the former 205-pound fringe contender moves up in weight and meets “The Black Beast” Derrick Lewis - one of the most prolific knockout artists in a division swimming with them.
Lewis’s cinderella run up the heavyweight ladder was stopped cold by Daniel Cormier in a championship matchup, and he was schooled by Junior Dos Santos in the followup. In his most recent outing, Lewis was able to bounce back with a split decision win over Blagoy Ivanov. While the 34-year old might never again fight for the title, he remains an intimidating figure as well as one of the bigger names in the division.
This is a huge opportunity for Latifi - beating the No. 5 Lewis is instant credibility. However, the circumstances for the move don’t provide much optimism: Latifi has lost two straight at light heavyweight, dropping a decision to Corey Anderson and getting knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir in his last outing. While some fighters have remade themselves successfully at bigger weight classes, we have yet to see anybody do that at heavyweight - it’s extremely tough when everybody in the division can knock you out.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu Lewis opened with as a major -280 favorite, with Latifi at +214 on the comeback. Let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is available during the fight if you want to bet on real-time line updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Derrick Lewis -250
Ilir Latifi +194
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +184 / -265
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Lewis 2.69 / Latifi 2.29
Striking accuracy: Lewis 50% / Latifi 40%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Lewis 2.38 / Latifi 3.09
Striking defense: Lewis 44% / Latifi 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Lewis 0.47 / Latifi 1.85
Takedown accuracy: Lewis 23% / Latifi 30%
Takedown defense: Lewis 53% / Latifi 100%
Submission average: Lewis 0 / Latifi 0.51
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There’s a lot of skepticism regarding Latifi’s move - and rightfully so. He was a small light heavyweight to begin with, listed at just 5’8”. In a division where fighters usually stand above 6’1”, Latifi is gonna look like a midget. Lewis is 6’3” and weighs in at the limit of 265 pounds. We’re guessing that Latifi weighs in no more than 230 pounds - meaning that he’ll give up more than 30 pounds and more than half a foot to his opponent.
You can point to Daniel Cormier as a short, successful heavyweight - he schooled Lewis with ease. But there’s a big difference between the two: DC is an elite wrestler with excellent speed, while Latifi is just a solid wrestler who isn’t particularly fast. Latifi was never great at imposing his wrestling against light heavyweights, and while he’s more than willing to get into a standup trench war, that task will be far more difficult against bombers like Lewis, Overeem and JDS.
Lewis has to be drooling at the chance to face somebody like Latifi. The Houston native has the chin to eat all of Latifi’s best punches, the size to fight off his takedowns, and the reach to make sure the Swede stays at the end of his punches. There’s a chance that gets into a grinding groove, but he’d have to spend a lot of time pushing Lewis into the fence. We’re not sure he’s big enough to do so.
UFC Odds Pick: Lewis to win by TKO
We’re taking a small risk here and picking the victory prop over the straight up win price. This seems like a matchup that was made for Lewis to get a big win in front of a hometown crowd. At some point, he lands a knockout blow and ends the fight - then says something memorable on the mic afterward. At this price, a decent-sized bet makes sense.
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