No. 5 bantamweight Raphael Assuncao (27-7, 4 KOs, 10 SUBs) and former champion Cody Garbrandt (11-3, 9 KOs) will meet at UFC 250 on Saturday, June 6, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Fewer fighters have risen and fallen as fast as Cody Garbrandt. The killshot artist rocketed up the bantamweight rankings with a 10-0 record, earning a title shot against Dominick Cruz. In that matchup, Garbrandt painted his rembrandt - a performance so masterful he ended up styling on an all-time great and winning the championship.
It seemed like a star was born: Garbrandt had the look, the swag and power you just can’t teach. But it all came crashing down against TJ Dillashaw, who absolutely dominated Garbrandt in two straight fights - though it should be mentioned that TJ got banned for EPO usage soon after. A bounceback fight against Pedro Munhoz went even worse, as Garbrandt was knocked out yet again, but this time by a guy outside the title mix.
This Saturday, Garbrandt comes to a career crossroads matchup against Raphael Assuncao. The Brazilian is hoping to stop a two-fight losing streak and keep his top 5 ranking in the process. Losing to Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen is one thing, but dropping a fight to the No. 9 Garbrandt would take a few fights to recover from.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the money lines, round totals, decision props, victory bets and more. Live UFC betting is available if you’d like to bet on real-time odds updates during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Raphael Assuncao +118
Cody Garbrandt -148
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -115 / -115
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Assuncao 3.32 / Garbrandt 3.53
Striking accuracy: Assuncao 41% / Garbrandt 37%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Assuncao 2.35 / Garbrandt 3.53
Striking defense: Assuncao 68% / Garbrandt 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Assuncao 1.54 / Garbrandt 0.94
Takedown accuracy: Assuncao 38% / Garbrandt 33%
Takedown defense: Assuncao 80% / Garbrandt 100%
Submission average: Assuncao 0.3 / Garbrandt 0.0
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
Garbrandt is in serious jeopardy of becoming the bantamweight Mike Perry. Which would be a shame, since Garbrandt has more tools to work with than the Floridian. The 28-year old is an excellent athlete with unreal hand speed and special knockout power, plus a wrestling background that has made him literally impossible to take down thus far inside the octagon. But like Perry, Garbrandt seems hell-bent on getting into brawl-or-nothing scraps - and his chin hasn’t held up.
The lack of fight IQ falls partially on his camp: Team Alpha Male might be one of the best lighter weight gyms in the business, but they’ve failed time and time again to develop the striking games of their top level fighters. Cody might benefit from a change of scenery, but he and Urijah Faber are super tight - and Alpha Male is still producing excellent fighters today.
Assuncao has never been a particularly exciting fighter to watch, but he has crafted a counter-heavy approach on the feet that’s worked for him. The Brazilian’s wrestling is now a plus, although you can forget about trying to take down Garbrandt. Physically, he is outmatched by the former champ, but can absolutely come out on top should Garbrandt throw caution to the wind. At 37, Assuncao is also at an age where he could fall off very quickly. He hasn’t shown any huge signs of decline just yet, but you can’t say a guy near 40 is in his prime.
UFC Odds Pick: Garbrandt to win at -148
Even if Garbrandt just starts brawling, Assuncao is not Dillashaw or even Pedro Munhoz. The Brazilian won’t be able to match No Love’s speed or power, which will be clear from the start. At this price, we recommend making a sizable bet on the former champ - just pray he doesn’t start blindly swinging.
How to Bet
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