Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (16-1, 7 KOs, 1 SUB) will make his second title defense against Jorge “Gambred” Masvidal (35-13, 16 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC 251 on Saturday, July 11, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The matchup headlines a loaded card, kicking off a week of events in the desert. Catch the main card action - featuring three title fights - on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET. The prelims air on ESPN, ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with eight fights. Let’s take a closer look at the main event between Usman and Burns.
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
The Champion: Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (16-1, 7 KOs, 1 SUB)
It’s tough to tell if Usman is going to put together a lengthy run as welterweight champion. Nobody would be surprised if he held onto the belt for a few years, and that should give you some idea just how good he is. Marty from Nebraska has won 14 straight fights, a run that includes 11 UFC fights and wins over Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington. He has yet to lose inside the octagon, though his last fight against Covington was a brutal, back-and-forth war.
At 33, time is not on Usman’s side, but he’s certainly got an elite toolbox to work with. For starters, he is an absolute beast of a man - muscles on muscles and raw natural power. He comes from a power wrestling background, capturing an NCAA national championship in 2010. Over time, Usman has evolved into a strong striker, to the point where he is perfectly comfortable staying on the feet for five rounds. While his standup isn’t pretty, it’s effective and highly impactful - he broke Colby Covington’s jaw after all.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Usman as a huge -286 favorite. It’s hard to argue against the price, especially when he can use his elite wrestling as a crutch.
Jorge Masvidal (35-13, 16 KOs, 2 SUBs)
Let’s not pretend that Masvidal was the guy that everybody wanted to see fight for the title in the first place. It took some weird turns to get here, but in the end “Gamebred” is getting paid enough to happily take the matchup. Now it’s time to see if one of the UFC’s biggest stars can rocket into the stratosphere by winning the UFC title. You can’t make this up: Mas is a guy that started his career nearly 20 years ago fighting Kimbo Slice’s backyard for YouTube. This would be one of the coolest stories in UFC history.
There are reports saying that Masvidal has been training the whole time, and taking the fight on a week’s notice really won’t be that big of a deal. We don’t know if he was in a full fight camp, but it’s really hard to believe that his team could have predicted Gilbert Burns testing positive for Covid19. While Masvidal is probably in very good shape, we highly doubt he’s in peak fight shape. That matters at this level.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Masvidal as a big +230 underdog. He’s got an uphill battle, but this is one of the most savvy fighters in the world.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Usman 4.6 / Masvidal 4.11
Striking accuracy: Usman 52% / Masvidal 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Usman 2.17 / Masvidal 4.18
Striking defense: Usman 60% / Masvidal 67%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Usman 3.44 / Masvidal 1.16
Takedown accuracy: Usman 50% / Masvidal 51%
Takedown defense: Usman 100% / Masvidal 77%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Usman 0.16 / Masvidal 0.51
UFC Picks
It’s tough not to lean on Usman here. If Maia was able to drag Masvidal to the ground, Usman should be able to do the same. With the champ’s wrestling and full training camp, you can feel good about taking him to win.
I’d keep an an eye on the live UFC odds here. If Masvidal can stuf f a few early takedowns, then hammer his live money line. There are only a handful of men in the world that can outstrike Gamebred in a kickboxing match, and Usman isn’t one of them.
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal Card & Odds
Jorge Masvidal +216 vs. Kamaru Usman -283
Max Holloway +194 vs. Alexander Volkanovski -250
Jose Aldo +179 vs. Petr Yan -230
Paige VanZant +555 vs. Amanda Ribas -925
Jessica Andrade +162 vs. Rose Namajunas -204
Jiri Prochazka +140 vs. Volkan Oezdemir -176
Zhalgas Zhumagulov +150 vs. Raulian Paiva -190
Vanessa Melo +186 vs. Karol Rosa -240
Danny Henry +150 vs. Makwan Amirkhani -190
Roman Bogatov +150 vs. Leonardo Santos -190
Elizeu Zaleski -105 vs. Muslim Salikhov -125
Davey Grant +143 vs. Martin Day -180
Maxim Grishin -106 vs. Marcin Tybura -124
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props, and money lines are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
