Former heavyweight champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (21-7, 15 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet knockout artist Jairzinho “Bigi Boy'' Rozenstruik (10-1, 9 KOs) at UFC 252 on Saturday, August 15, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET, with a heavyweight trilogy match Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier headlining the night. Also on the card: a light heavyweight blood feud between Ion ``Hulk” Cutelaba and Magomed Ankalaev, and another appearance of blue chip bantamweight prospect Sean O’Malley. Let’s take a look at the heavyweight co-main between JDS and Bigi Boi and break down your best betting options in the online sportsbook. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Rozenstruik as a -155 favorite, with dos Santos at +121 on the comeback.
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Junior dos Santos (21-7, 15 KOs, 1 SUB)
Cigano isn’t that old at 36, but he’s had a long career filled with brutal battles, and we’ve seen his speed, athleticism and (most notably) durability clearly wane. Credit where credit’s due: Cigano has managed to remain a major player in the heavyweight division for more than a decade - a testament to how good he is. Still, it’s likely that his title window is firmly shut, as he JDS enters his matchup on the heels of two straight knockout losses to Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes. It’s clear that he sits a notch below the elite tier, but is still good enough to hang around the top 7.
Much of the reason that dos Santos has been so good for so long is that he’s one of the best technical boxers in the division - it’s a skillset that he’s always been able to rely on. On top of that, he’s a big guy, a good athlete and a hard hitter. In a standup match, Junior outguns 90% of UFC heavyweights, and he’s always had excellent takedown defense to keep fights standing. The caveat here is that his once-iron chin is cracked, and an explosive puncher can merely bide his time to end a fight that dos Santos might otherwise be winning.
That’s clearly why the online oddsmakers are installing dos Santos as the underdog, although we wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up as a negative underdog. Dos Santos tends to do well against less technical strikers.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-1, 9 KOs)
Bigi Boi tried to become the next Francis Ngannou, until he met the actual Francis Ngannou. Brief rewind here: the Suriname native raced out to a 10-0 pro record, which included four straight knockout wins in the UFC. A dramatic last second KO of Alistair Overeem led to the shot against Ngannou, and it’s likely that he would’ve clinched a title shot had he scored another KO. But Ngannou shut down that real quick, needing just 20 seconds to send Rozenstruik to the shadow realm.
He’s not getting an easy fight to bounce back from his first loss. When it comes to striking, Rozenstruik is not on the same level as Dos Santos. The loss to Overeem really exposed the lack of depth, as the longtime vet used smart striking, clinches and takedowns to stifle and frustrate the 32-year old. Luckily for Rozenstruik, he’s in a division where a fighter can get pretty far relying solely on knockout power - look at Derrick Lewis.
The question here is whether you want to rely on Rozenstruik’s power and bet against Dos Santos’ chin. I have no doubt that JDS will be the better boxer here, but he cannot make a single mistake in 15 minutes against Rozenstruik.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dos Santos 4.66 / Rozenstruik 3.72
Striking accuracy: Dos Santos 48% / Rozenstruik 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dos Santos 3.13 / Rozenstruik 3.05
Striking defense: Dos Santos 58% / Rozenstruik 32%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dos Santos 0.33 / Rozenstruik 0
Takedown accuracy: Dos Santos 55% / Rozenstruik -
Takedown defense: Dos Santos 81% / Rozenstruik 75%
Submission average: Dos Santos 0.07 / Rozenstruik 0
UFC Picks: Dos Santos to win at +121
Honestly, I believe that JDS should be the favorite - so getting him at an underdog price is a fantastic value. Rozenstruik is not Francis Ngannou or Curtis Blaydes, he is not the type of massive, explosive hitter that JDS can’t hang with anymore. I expect the Brazilian to steadily pick apart Rozenstruik and walk away with the win. I’d also take a look at dos Santos inside the distance, as he’s a good bet to land shots that’ll put his opponent away.
UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 Card & Odds
Heavyweight Championship- Stipe Miocic -107 vs. Daniel Cormier -117
Heavyweight- Junior Dos Santos +113 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -137
Bantamweight- Marlon Vera +254 vs. Sean O’Malley -322
Flyweight- Jon Dodson +188 vs. Merab Dvalishvili -230
Women’s Strawweight- Ashley Yoder +133 vs. Livia Souza -160
Women’s Strawweight- Felice Herrig +249 vs. Virna Jandiroba -313
Featherweight- Daniel Pineda +230 vs. Herbert Burns -288
Lightweight- Jim Miller +103 vs. Vinc Pichel -127
Featherweight - Danny Chavez +123 vs. TJ Brown -147
Heavyweight- Chris Daukaus +103 vs. Parker Porter -127
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