Undefeated blue chip prospect “Sugar” Sean O’Malley (12-0, 8 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Marlon Vera (15-6, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC 252 on Saturday, August 15, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 pm ET, with a heavyweight trilogy match Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier headlining the night. Also on the card: a heavyweight banger between Junior Dos Santos and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and a light heavyweight blood feud between Ion “Hulk” Cutelaba and Magomed Ankalaev. In this article, we’re taking a closer look at the bantamweight weight feature between O’Malley and vera. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with O’Malley as a major -267 favorite, with Vera at +231 on the comeback.
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Sean O’Malley (12-0, 8 KOs, 1 SUB)
There aren’t many fighters with such natural swagger. Fighters like Conor McGregor, Israel Adesanya and the Diaz brothers immediately come to mind. O’Malley has that type of charisma. Call it a combination of his hair, his social media game, his love for the ganja and of course, some badass fighting skills. The 25-year old has all the tools to be a superstar, in one of the UFC’s most exciting divisions no less.
O’Malley has had several speed bumps on the way: a major foot injury suffered during a fight with Andre Soukhamthath sidelined Sugar, then he popped for PEDs. That double whammy kept him out of the octagon for two years, but 2020 has already been an extremely productive year. First was a quick knockout of Jose Quinonez at UFC 248. Then, just two months ago came a huge win on a loaded UFC 250 main card. In case you missed it: O’Malley smashed a very good vet in Eddie Wineland with a single, walkoff punch. It was the kind of performance that demands a quick encore.
We get why online oddsmakers are favoring O’Malley so heavily - he has been as good as advertised, he trains at the top-notch MMA Lab and he’s a badass. But let’s not get carried away: we just saw another hyped prospect Edmen Shahbazyan take his first L against a more experienced veteran in Derek Brunson just a few months ago.
Marlon Vera (15-6, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs)
It took a while for Vera to get rolling after making his debut on TUF: Latin America. Though he lost two of his first three UFC fights, Vera has put together three- and five-fight winning streaks inside the octagon. Of course, it’s not like Vera has been facing world-beaters: his most recent victories came against Frankie Saenz, Noehlin Hernandez and Andre Ewell. The flip side: six of his last eight wins have come by way of finish - the 27-year old has serious killer instinct.
Coming off a unanimous decision loss to Yadong Song, Vera has a tall task in front of him. First of all, he’ll have to address his habit of slow starts as O’Malley has notched two quick finishes in a row. Second, this seems like a difficult style matchup for Vera. As a pressure fighter who seeks to tire out his opponents, Vera is going to have to wade through a minefield to lay hands on his opponent. But despite six losses, Vera has never been finished, even though he’s gotten into some big firefights.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: O’Malley 6.93 / Vera 3.7
Striking accuracy: O’Malley 58% / Vera 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: O’Malley 4.21 / Vera 4.11
Striking defense: O’Malley 66% / Vera 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: O’Malley 1.33 / Vera 0.88
Takedown accuracy: O’Malley 50% / Vera 42%
Takedown defense: O’Malley 61% / 69%
Submission average: O’Malley 1.33 / Vera 1.28
UFC Picks: O’Malley to win / Rounds over
If Vera was a wrestler or a control freak, we’d love him as a live ‘dog against a still unproven prospect. But Vera is a striker, and that’s where O’Malley feasts - he’s already shown himself to have contender-level standup. If you’re going to take a risk, we’d take a look at the rounds over. Both guys are finishers, but neither have ever been stopped. That likely ends here, but it should take a while to get there.
UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 Card & Odds
Heavyweight Championship- Stipe Miocic -107 vs. Daniel Cormier -117
Heavyweight- Junior Dos Santos +113 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -137
Bantamweight- Marlon Vera +254 vs. Sean O’Malley -322
Flyweight- Jon Dodson +188 vs. Merab Dvalishvili -230
Women’s Strawweight- Ashley Yoder +133 vs. Livia Souza -160
Women’s Strawweight- Felice Herrig +249 vs. Virna Jandiroba -313
Featherweight- Daniel Pineda +230 vs. Herbert Burns -288
Lightweight- Jim Miller +103 vs. Vinc Pichel -127
Featherweight - Danny Chavez +123 vs. TJ Brown -147
Heavyweight- Chris Daukaus +103 vs. Parker Porter -127
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