Jake Matthews is heavily favored against Diego Sanchez at UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa on Saturday, September 26 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN 2/ESPN+ portion of the preliminary card. Sanchez is 30-12 in his career, while Matthews is 16-4 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card on UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa, with the headliner a bout between Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa. There are also a total of six fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN 2/ESPN+ and two on ESPN2/ESPN+/ UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Sanchez and Matthews and UFC predictions.
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Diego Sanchez (30-12, 19-12 UFC)
Sanchez came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has 19 wins and 12 losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Craig White by unanimous decision, Mickey Gall by TKO, and Michel Pereira by disqualification; while losing to Al Iaquinta by KO, Matt Brown by KO, and Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision. Sanchez has been a pro since 2002 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Jake Matthews (16-4, 9-4 UFC)
Matthews came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has nine wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Bojan Velickovic by split decision, Li Jingliang by unanimous decision, Shinsho Anzai by technical submission, Rostem Akman by unanimous decision, and Emil Weber Meek by unanimous decision; while losing to Anthony Rocco Martin by technical submission. Matthews has been a pro since 2012 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has four first round finishes.
Matthews said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against Sanchez, “I think I’ve had five wins and one loss in my past six fights, and that’s pretty decent in the UFC. Now, I’m hoping to get my third straight. It’s always great for the confidence, especially beating an opponent like my last one – Emil Meek was a tough guy. He was very similar to Diego, except bigger, stronger and younger. Has that aggressiveness. Loves to swing and slog. I think that, going off my last fight, I should be pretty capable of having Diego covered. I don’t know which Diego I’m going to face. I really hope it’s the Diego of old – The Nightmare. He may come out swinging, or he may relentlessly try to take me down. Who knows? I don’t think even Diego knows which version will rock up. I’ve just got to be prepared and adapt.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Sanchez 2.73/ Matthews 2.98
Striking Accuracy: Sanchez 38% / Matthews 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Sanchez 2.95/ Matthews 2.16
Defense: Sanchez 56% / Matthews 62%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Sanchez 1.57/ Matthews 2.20
Takedown Accuracy: Sanchez 24% / Matthews 41%
Takedowns defended: Sanchez 46% / Matthews 68%
Submission average: Sanchez 0.9/ Matthews 0.7
UFC Picks
Matthews is heavily favored in this fight and he should get the win, but I am not laying the huge price of more than 7-1. That leaves the rounds as the main option to consider in this bout. The total is listed at 2.5 with the over at -180. I don’t see a knockout in this one, so if Sanchez can avoid getting into submission trouble, I think this fight should go the distance. I will go over the total in this fight.
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa Card & Odds
Middleweight Championship: Paulo Costa +150 vs. Israel Adesanya -181
Light Heavyweight Championship: Jan Blachowicz +221 vs. Dominick Reyes -274
Flyweight: Brandon Royval +188 vs. Kai Kara France -230
Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu -107 vs. Zubaira Tukhugov -117
Welterweight: Diego Sanchez +480 vs. Jake Matthews -678
Lightweight: Alex Da Silva +249 vs. Brad Riddell -313
Light Heavyweight: William Knight +143 vs. Aleksa Camur -171
Heavyweight: Jeff Hughes +228 vs. Juan Espino -284
Light Heavyweight: Danilo Marques +138 vs. Khadis Ibragimov -166
Featherweight: Ludovit Klein +103 vs. Shane Young -127
Women's Bantamweight: Sijara Eubanks +158 vs. Ketlen Vieira -191
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