Light heavyweight contenders Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (12-1, 7 KOs, 2 SUBs) and Jan Blachowicz (26-8, 7 KOs, 9 SUBs) will face off for the vacant title at UFC 253 on Saturday, September 26, 2020 at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. In the main event undefeated middleweight champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (19-0, 14 KOs) defends his title against undefeated knockout artist Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa (13-0, 11 KOs, 1 SUB). The pay-per-view card airs live starting 10pm ET. Let’s take a closer look at the co-main event and break down your best betting picks - the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Reyes as a huge -245 favorite, with Blachowicz at +190 on the comeback.
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Dominick Reyes (12-1, 7 KOs, 2 SUBs)
On paper, Reyes lost to Jon Jones in his last outing via unanimous decision. But a LOT of people watching that fight felt that the 30-year old did more than enough to walk away the winner. Just the fact that he fought well enough to lose a controversial decision against the 205-pound GOAT is impressive in itself. Then consider that it was the only loss of his career, with UFC wins over Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, Volkan Oezdemir and Chris Weidman.
Add all that up and it’s clear that this is one of the best light heavyweights in the business today. It’s fair to bring up that 205 is one of the shallowest divisions, but Reyes has proved himself to be an elite fighter.
A former collegiate football standout, The Devastator benefits from excellent physical tools: he’s 6’4” and an exceptional athlete. Though he transitioned to MMA later in life, Reyes has caught onto the game impressively fast. Right now, he’s a dangerous striker with knockout power in all eight points. But he can wrestle and grapple at a plus level as well. What’s scary is that his best days are ahead of him as he keeps gaining experience and leveling up already good all-around skills.
Jan Blachowicz (26-8, 7 KOs, 9 SUBs)
Even now, it’s tough to believe that Blachowicz is fighting for the title - but it’s not like he hasn’t earned it. After an extremely tough stretch where he lost four of five, the Polish native has ripped off seven wins his past eight scraps. A few notable wins during this run: Cannonier, Luke Rockhold, Jacare Souza and most recently, Corey Anderson. That’s good competition. What’s more, the 37-year old has won two of his last three by knockout - perhaps it’s time to start respecting his power?
Blachowicz has skills in every area, and the fight IQ to challenge opponents where they’re weakest. He prefers to stay on the feet, using his piercing jab to set up a strong kickboxing attack. That jab by itself was good enough to beat the explosive Cannonier, and was instrumental in setting up his knockout of JImi Manuwa. But we also know that he can wrestle his way to wins, like we saw against Nikita Krylov.
He’s a big underdog for a reason: Blachowicz is the slower fighter. He doesn’t have the power to flatline Reyes. He’s not strong enough to force Reyes to wrestle. But it’d be foolish to write him off - he is much better than the sum of his parts.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Reyes 4.88 / Blachowicz 3.45
Striking accuracy: Reyes 49% / Blachowicz 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Reyes 3 / Blachowicz 2.77
Striking defense: Reyes 48% / Blachowicz 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Reyes 0.24 / Blachowicz 1.6
Takedown accuracy: Reyes 16% / Blachowicz 52%
Takedown defense: Reyes 82% / Blachowicz 65%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Reyes 0.24 / Blachowicz 0.27
UFC Picks
When it comes to skill, Reyes and Blachowicz are evenly matched. When it comes to physicality, Reyes has a huge advantage. As the taller, longer and faster fighter, Reyes is going to be a major problem for Blachowicz. However, Blachowicz has the veteran savvy to last all five rounds, which is why we also recommend the decision prop.
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa Card & Odds
Middleweight Championship: Paulo Costa +150 vs. Israel Adesanya -181
Light Heavyweight Championship: Jan Blachowicz +221 vs. Dominick Reyes -274
Flyweight: Brandon Royval +188 vs. Kai Kara France -230
Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu -107 vs. Zubaira Tukhugov -117
Welterweight: Diego Sanchez +480 vs. Jake Matthews -678
Lightweight: Alex Da Silva +249 vs. Brad Riddell -313
Light Heavyweight: William Knight +143 vs. Aleksa Camur -171
Heavyweight: Jeff Hughes +228 vs. Juan Espino -284
Light Heavyweight: Danilo Marques +138 vs. Khadis Ibragimov -166
Featherweight: Ludovit Klein +103 vs. Shane Young -127
Women's Bantamweight: Sijara Eubanks +158 vs. Ketlen Vieira -191
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