Undefeated middleweight champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (19-0, 14 KOs) will meet undefeated knockout artist Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa (13-0, 11 KOs, 1 SUB) in the headlining event of UFC 253 on Saturday, September 26, 2020 at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The pay-per-view card airs live starting 10pm ET. In the co-main event, light heavyweight contenders Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (12-1, 7 KOs, 2 SUBs) and Jan Blachowicz (26-8, 7 KOs, 9 SUBs) will square off for the vacant title. Let’s take a closer look at the main event - the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with the champ as a -167 favorite, with Costa at +139 on the comeback.
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Israel Adesanya (19-0, 14 KOs)
There’s no sugarcoating the fact that Stylebender’s last title defense against Yoel Romero was an absolute stinker. Though most of the blame fell on the Cuban, Adesanya hasn’t escaped the criticism either. This is a fight that’s tailormade to put that snoozer far in the rearview mirror.
Adesanya does his best work when he’s countering aggression. We’ve seen this time and time again, against fighters of all styles. Brad Tavares got tooled up when he tried crowd him. Derek Brunson tried to drag him to the mat and got TKO’d in one round. Then-champion Robert Whittaker tried to force a brawl and was stopped in two rounds. The only guy that’s had any success being the aggressor was Kelvin Gastelum, and even then Adesanya got his timing and dropped him three times in the final frame. Against more conservative fighters like Romero and Anderson Silva, we got crickets.
The good news is that Costa’s whole identity is built on marching forward and hammering opponents into submission - he doesn’t know any other way to scrap. The champion should have ample opportunities to showcase some of the best kickboxing skills in the UFC - he just cannot afford to make too many mistakes against a killer like Costa.
Paulo Henrique Costa (13-0, 11 KOs, 1 SUB)
Costa has fought 13 times as a pro, earning finishes in all but one of them. Though he only has 5 UFC appearances, he’s ratcheted up his competition every time - Costa graduated from Oluwale Bamgbose to Romero in just three fights. Everybody loves a balls-to-the-wall knockout artist, but it also doesn’t hurt that Costa has comic book muscles and model good looks. We’ve also got to admit that his social media trolling game is solid too.
Coming forward and throwing haymakers is exactly what Adesanya is hoping for - but it really might not matter. Costa is a smashing machine with zero fear: how do you prep for a guy like that? It was seriously shocking to see a fighter willingly chase down a powerhouse like Romero. If Costa is able to force Adesanya to back up for most of the fight, then it won’t be hard for the judges to give him the win - if he doesn’t take it by force to begin with. The man averages 8.83 significant strikes a minute! There are great reasons that the money lines are so competitive in the online sportsbook.
Significant Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Adesanya 3.96 / Costa 8.83
Striking accuracy: Adesanya 48% / Costa 59%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Adesanya 2.4 / Costa 5.79
Striking defense: Adesanya 65% / Costa 50%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Adesanya - / Costa -
Takedown accuracy: Adesanya - / Costa -
Takedown defense: Adesanya 86% / Costa 81%
Submission average: Adesanya 0.35 / Costa 0
UFC Picks
Bettors can benefit from Costa’s highlight reel - it’s easy to fall in love and start to believe that he can just walk down and knockout anyone. But this is going to be a pure striking match - both fighters have yet to attempt a takedown inside the octagon. You’ve got to back Adesanya, who was a special kickboxer before turning to MMA. We know he can take a punch (courtesy of Gastelum), and he’s a better technical striker. You can feel confident making a sizable bet on the champ.
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa Card & Odds
Middleweight Championship: Paulo Costa +150 vs. Israel Adesanya -181
Light Heavyweight Championship: Jan Blachowicz +221 vs. Dominick Reyes -274
Flyweight: Brandon Royval +188 vs. Kai Kara France -230
Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu -107 vs. Zubaira Tukhugov -117
Welterweight: Diego Sanchez +480 vs. Jake Matthews -678
Lightweight: Alex Da Silva +249 vs. Brad Riddell -313
Light Heavyweight: William Knight +143 vs. Aleksa Camur -171
Heavyweight: Jeff Hughes +228 vs. Juan Espino -284
Light Heavyweight: Danilo Marques +138 vs. Khadis Ibragimov -166
Featherweight: Ludovit Klein +103 vs. Shane Young -127
Women's Bantamweight: Sijara Eubanks +158 vs. Ketlen Vieira -191
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