Alexander Volkov is favored against Walt Harris at UFC 254 on Saturday night. The event takes place in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates and this fight is one of six fights on the main pay-per-view card. Volkov is 31-8 in his career, while Harris is 13-8 in his career. There are a total of six fights on the main pay-per-view card on UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje, with the headliner a bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN 2/ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Volkov and Harris and UFC picks.
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Alexander Volkov (31-8, 5-2 UFC)
Volkov came into the UFC with a record of 26-6 and he has five wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Timothy Johnson by split decision, Roy Nelson by unanimous decision, Stefan Struve by TKO, Fabrício Werdum by KO, and Greg Hardy by unanimous decision; while losing to Derrick Lewis by KO and Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision. Volkov has been a pro since 2009 and he has 20 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 15 first round finishes.
Walt Harris (13-8, 6-7 UFC)
Harris came into the UFC with a record of 6-1 and he has six wins and seven losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has three wins and two losses. He defeated Daniel Spitz by TKO, Sergey Spivak by TKO, and Aleksei Oleinik by KO; while losing to Mark Godbeer by disqualification and Alistair Overeem by TKO. Harris has been a pro since 2011 and he has 13 wins by TKO/KO. He has 11 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Volkov 4.65/ Harris 2.97
Striking Accuracy: Volkov 58% / Harris 39%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Volkov 2.53/ Harris 3.18
Defense: Volkov 54% / Harris 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Volkov 0.72/ Harris 0.32
Takedown Accuracy: Volkov 70% / Harris 33%
Takedowns defended: Volkov 65% / Harris 72%
Submission average: Volkov 0.2/ Harris 0.2
UFC Picks
Volkov and Harris are coming off losses, so the motivation for each will be high in this fight. Volkov is almost a 2-1 favorite and on paper he would seem to have the edge, but I don’t know that this matchup favors him. Both fighters have weak ground games so this is going to be a striking battle. That fact alone gives Harris a chance to win this one. I lean slightly to Harris because of the plus money, but I think the best choice is to take this fight to go under the total, as the two have combined for 33 TKO/KO’s and 26 first round finishes.
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje Card & Odds
Lightweight Championship - Justin Gaethje +273 vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov -347
Middleweight - Jared Cannonier -117 vs. Robert Whittaker -107
Heavyweight - Walt Harris +147 vs. Alexander Volkov -176
Light Heavyweight - Ion Cutelaba +243 vs. Magomed Ankalaev -303
Middleweight - Jacob Malkoun +207 vs. Phil Hawes -255
Heavyweight - Tai Tuivasa -102 vs. Stefan Struve -122
Light Heavyweight - Sam Alvey +273 vs. Da Un Jung -347
Women’s Flyweight - Liana Jojua +338 vs. Miranda Maverick -444
Welterweight - Shavkat Rakhmonov -107 vs. Alex Oliveira -117
Catchweight - Casey Kenney -186 vs. Nathaniel Wood +154
Lightweight - Joel Alvarez -162 vs. Alexander Yakovlev +134
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