UFC superstar and former lightweight champion Conor McGregor (22-4, 19 KOs, 1 SUB) rematches former interim champion Dustin Poirier (26-6, 12 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 on Saturday, January 23, 2021 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET. In the co-main event, former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler (21-5, 9 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet No. 6 Dan Hooker (20-9, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs) in a possible title eliminator. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with McGregor as a -185 favorite, with Poirier at +146 on the comeback.
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The Stakes
While there might not be a title on the line, a McGregor win could draw Nurmagomedov out of retirement. If the Russian refuses, then the winner would almost certainly fight for the vacant title against any number of deserving 155-pounders. Poirier is gonna make stacks of money and could emerge as a legitimate star. If he loses? Besides the sting of losing to the Irishman twice, there isn't much downside. McGregor has a lot more to lose, as a defeat would shut the door on any valid argument that he deserves to a title fight. The UFC's eyes turn into cartoon dollar signs just at the thought of having Conor as it's champ.
Conor McGregor (22-4, 19 KOs, 1 SUB)
It's interesting to note that McGregor opened at -185 before early action drove his line down to the -270 range. Chalk that up to the Notorious one having millions of loyal fans that will blindly bet on him, and the sportsbook reaction to try and coax more action on Poirier to hedge. That's how this game works.
We agree with the opening odds - McGregor should be the heavy favorite. What makes him special makes him a nightmare matchup for Poirier. The first time they met, McGregor needed only a few minutes to find his timing and range...resulting in Poirier's head getting bounced off the canvas. The same arguments still apply today: the 32-year old's blend of power, distance control, accuracy and handspeed are the perfect foil against Poirier's traditional boxing. This is a man that has 19 KOs in 22 career victories, and The Diamond's tendency to get cracked throughout his fights puts him in immense peril.
More McGregor odds at our online sportsbook
McGregor inside the distance -200
McGregor by decision +600
Dustin Poirier (26-6, 12 KOs, 7 SUBs)
Though Poirier opened at +146 back in November, his money line shot up to around +200 in early January. For Poirier backers, this is a gift - it's also far easier to talk yourself into taking an elite fighter at 2-1 odds. But is this a risk you should take?
The case for Poirier is compelling, yet much of it is circumstantial. When he got KO'd in the first match, the then-24 year old let McGregor get inside his head. Now 31, Poirier enters the rematch a grownass family man with a wife, daughter and business. McGregor isn't even trying with the mind games anymore. This time around, Dustin enters the cage an elite, battle-tested fighter who regularly goes to war with the lightweight elite. You have to figure in a five-round battle of attrition, the edge goes Dustin - he is the better conditioned fighter and has a higher striking output.
Additional Poirier odds at the UFC online sportsbook
Poirier inside the distance +450
Poirier wins by decision +500
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Poirier 5.59 / McGregor 5.43
Striking accuracy: Poirier 49% / McGregor 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Poirier 3.69 / McGregor 4.4
Striking defense: Poirier 56% / McGregor 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Poirier 1.75 / McGregor 0.75
Takedown accuracy: Poirier 41% / McGregor 62%
Takedown defense: Poirier 69% / McGregor 70%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Poirier 1.32 / McGregor 0
Additional Bets
Over/under 2.5 rounds O +158 / U -200
Fight goes/doesn't go to decision +300 / -450
UFC Picks
We feel that the safest pick here is that the fight doesn't go to decision at -405. Considering McGregor's power and Poirier's aggressiveness, it's highly likely this ends inside the distance. Conversely, we really like Poirier at anywhere above +200 - and we really love him at the current +300 price. The Diamond is a fully evolved fighter with more experience against better lightweight competition. At this price, we'll lay a small bet that he finds a way to win.
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor II Card & Odds
Lightweight - Dustin Poirier +261 vs. Conor McGregor -329
Lightweight - Nasrat Haqparast +218 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -269
Women's Featherweight - Marina Rodriguez +257 vs. Amanda Ribas -323
Women's Flyweight - Jessica Eye -107 vs. Joanne Calderwood -117
Light Heavyweight - Marcin Prachnio +267 vs. Khalil Rountree -337
Middleweight - Antonio Carlos Junior +113 vs. Brad Tavares -137
Lightweight - Matt Frevola +136 vs. Ottman Azaitar -164
Flyweight - Amir Albazi -102 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov -122
Middleweight - Andrew Sanchez +116 vs. Makhmud Muradov -142
Women's Bantamweight - Julianna Pena +103 vs. Sara McMann -127
Lightweight - Michael Chandler -109 vs. Dan Hooker -115
Catchweight - Nik Lentz +354 vs. Movsar Evloev -468
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