Sara McMann is slightly favored against Julianna Pena at UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 on Saturday, January 23 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN/ESPN+ portion of the preliminary card. Pena is 9-4 in her career, while McMann is 12-5 in her career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card on UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2, with the headliner a bout between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN/ESPN+ and three on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass. Let's look at the bout between Pena and McMann and UFC predictions.
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Julianna Pena (9-4, 5-2 UFC)
Pena came into the UFC with a record of 4-2 and she has five wins and two losses in the UFC. She defeated Jessica Rakoczy by TKO, Milana Dudieva by TKO, Jessica Eye by unanimous decision, Cat Zingano by unanimous decision, and Nicco Montaño by unanimous decision; while losing to Valentina Shevchenko by armbar submission and Germaine de Randamie by technical submission. Pena has been a pro since 2009 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. She has four first round finishes.
Sara McMann (12-5, 6-5 UFC)
McMann came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and she has six wins and five losses in the UFC. In her last six fights, she has four wins and two losses. She defeated Jessica Eye by unanimous decision, Alexis Davis by arm-triangle choke submission, Gina Mazany by arm-triangle choke submission, and Lina Länsberg by unanimous decision; while losing to Ketlen Vieira by arm-triangle choke submission and Marion Reneau by triangle choke submission. McMann has been a pro since 2011 and she has one win by TKO and five by submission. She has four first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Pena 2.80/ McMann 2.39
Striking Accuracy: Pena 47% / McMann 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Pena 1.73/ McMann 1.86
Defense: Pena 51% / McMann 47%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Pena 2.73/ McMann 4.51
Takedown Accuracy: Pena 51% / McMann 63%
Takedowns defended: Pena 28% / McMann 66%
Submission average: Pena 0.8/ McMann 0.6
UFC Picks
McMann is slightly favored at -130 in this fight and that is where the line should be, as this fight is a total toss-up. Pena usually beats fighters who she should but loses to top notch fighters. I don't know that I put McMann in the category of a top fighter. I lean toward Pena in this fight, but I think the better choice is to play the rounds to go over the total.
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor II Card & Odds
Lightweight - Dustin Poirier +261 vs. Conor McGregor -329
Lightweight - Nasrat Haqparast +218 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -269
Women's Featherweight - Marina Rodriguez +257 vs. Amanda Ribas -323
Women's Flyweight - Jessica Eye -107 vs. Joanne Calderwood -117
Light Heavyweight - Marcin Prachnio +267 vs. Khalil Rountree -337
Middleweight - Antonio Carlos Junior +113 vs. Brad Tavares -137
Lightweight - Matt Frevola +136 vs. Ottman Azaitar -164
Flyweight - Amir Albazi -102 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov -122
Middleweight - Andrew Sanchez +116 vs. Makhmud Muradov -142
Women's Bantamweight - Julianna Pena +103 vs. Sara McMann -127
Lightweight - Michael Chandler -109 vs. Dan Hooker -115
Catchweight - Nik Lentz +354 vs. Movsar Evloev -468
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