UFC welterweight champion Kamaru "The Nigerian Nightmare" Usman (17-1, 7 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet surging contender Gilbert "Durinho" Burns (19-3, 6 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns on Saturday, February 13, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card streams live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET. Also on the card is a middleweight banger between former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) and Ian Heinisch (14-3, 5 KOs, 2 SUBs). Let's take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting picks. Usman opened as a -260 favorite, with Burns at +201 on the comeback.
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The Stakes
More Kamaru Usman please. You might've forgotten about the welterweight champ as he hasn't fought since July 2020, but here's a reminder: he's undefeated in 12 UFC fights and is currently riding a 15-fight winning streak. This is one of the best fighters in the game right now, and there's an outside chance that he becomes one of the greats at 170. Of course, Burns could end that conversation right now, but he's a serious underdog to do so. Despite his money line, nobody should be writing the Brazilian off considering how dangerous he looked against Tyron Woodley his last time out.
Kamaru Usman (17-1, 7 KOs, 1 SUB)
Peep Usman's last five victims: Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal. That, my friends, is what you call a murderer's row. The most impressive part of that run is that outside of the Colby fight, Usman largely ran through the competition. How he's done it has to be mentioned: against good grapplers, he won with his striking. Against good strikers, he took it to the mat and grinded.
It's no secret that Usman's bread and butter is his wrestling. The 33-year old has been competing at the top of the sport since high school, culminating in an NCAA Division II championship. He takes opponents down to the clip of 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, and once it's on the mat, it stays there. While his striking will always be stiff, nobody denies it's effectiveness. It's not quite a high-volume style, but we can't call him a power puncher either. From the Covington fight, we know that he can keep an extremely high pace and do some serious damage with his punches. He's a big, powerful dude with an excellent gas tank - that's a scary thought for anyone.
Gilbert Burns (19-3, 6 KOs, 8 SUBs)
It's been a fast rise for Burns, a former lightweight who really found his groove at 170. Though he entered the UFC as a jiu-jitsu guy, we've seen him become a legitimate striking threat inside the octagon. A matchup with Maia was supposed to be a grappler's delight, but instead it was an introduction of Burns as just the second fighter to knock out the future hall of famer. That set up a scrap with Tyron Woodley, where Burns channeled his inner Max Holloway to relentlessly pummel the former champ for five straight rounds. It was such a dominant performance that the UFC booked Burns - who isn't exactly a big draw - for a title match.
Burns' best shot at winning is likely on the feet, as he is already a more dynamic striker than his opponent. His grappling wizardry also makes for an interesting wrinkle, as Usman will has to think twice about taking this to the ground. Still, Burns will be facing an uphill battle against a bigger, stronger dude.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Usman 4.6 / Burns 3.15
Striking accuracy: Usman 51% / Burns 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Usman 2.17 / Burns 2.74
Striking defense: Usman 60% / Burns 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Usman 3.44 / Burns 2.21
Takedown accuracy: Usman 50% / Burns 37%
Takedown defense: Usman 100% / Burns 50%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Usman 0.16 / Burns 0.71
UFC Picks
Usman straight up isn't a bad play, but we're willing to take a bigger risk to bump up the payout. We think the champ has every major advantage here - physically and skills-wise - but he's never been much of a finisher. Burns is unlikely to mount any significant offense, but we don't see him being put in too much danger either. This one goes to the scorecards.
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Card & Odds
Welterweight - Gilbert Burns +225 vs. Kamaru Usman -279
Middleweight - Ian Heinisch +181 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -220
Women's Flyweight - Maycee Barber +113 vs. Alexa Grasso -137
Welterweight - Gabriel Green -134 vs. Philip Rowe +110
Middleweight - Maki Pitolo +138 vs. Julian Marquez -166
Women's Strawweight - Polyana Viana +128 vs. Mallory Martin -154
Middleweight - Anthony Hernandez +329 vs. Rodolfo Vieira -429
Women's Flyweight - Miranda Maverick -139 vs. Gillian Robertson +115
Lightweight - Jim Miller +213 vs. Bobby Green -264
Featherweight - Brian Kelleher +207 vs. Ricky Simon -255
Welterweight - Dhiego Lima +322 vs. Belal Muhammad -419
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