Valentina Shevchenko is heavily favored against Jessica Andrade at UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 on Saturday, April 24 in Jacksonville, Florida. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Shevchenko is 20-3 in her career, while Andrade is 21-8 in her career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card on UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2, with the headliner a bout between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN/ESPN+ and four on ESPN2/ ESPN+. Let's look at the bout between Shevchenko and Andrade and UFC picks.
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 Betting
Valentina Shevchenko (20-3, 9-2 UFC)
Shevchenko came into the UFC with a record of 11-1 and she has nine wins and two losses in the UFC. In her last five fights, she has five wins and no losses. She defeated Joanna Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision, Jessica Eye by KO, Liz Carmouche by unanimous decision, Katlyn Chookagian by TKO, and Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision.
Shevchenko's last loss in her career was against Amanda Nunes by split decision on September 9, 2017. Shevchenko has been a pro since 2003 and she has six wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. She has seven first round finishes.
Jessica Andrade (21-8, 12-6 UFC)
Andrade came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and she has 12 wins and six losses in the UFC. In her last five fights, she has three wins and two losses. She defeated Karolina Kowalkiewicz by KO, Rose Namajunas by KO, and Katlyn Chookagian by TKO; while losing to Zhang Weili by TKO and Rose Namajunas by split decision. Andrade has been a pro since 2011 and she has eight wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. She has nine first round finishes.
Andrade said this to scmp.com about her upcoming fight against Shevchenko, "I'm best when I'm the underdog. When people don't believe in me or think my opponent is better, they don't expect what I can do and I have the opportunity of surprising them. And I think that's what motivates me the most. I believe what will work best for me is not giving her space. Lots of people underestimate [Shevchenko] and then she can show all her skills and counter-attacks. When you take the space away from her I feel she gets a little bit lost, she loses her kicks and her spinning techniques. My first objective is going to be to tire her a little bit against the cage, ultimately take her down which I've proven I can do very well. And who knows, maybe in the third round when she's a little bit more tired, get the KO, get the submission, finish the fight."
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Shevchenko 2.98/ Andrade 6.38
Striking Accuracy: Shevchenko 50% / Andrade 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Shevchenko 2.03/ Andrade 5.26
Defense: Shevchenko 62% / Andrade 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Shevchenko 2.21/ Andrade 3.11
Takedown Accuracy: Shevchenko 58% / Andrade 57%
Takedowns defended: Shevchenko 75% / Andrade 76%
Submission average: Shevchenko 0.3/ Andrade 0.4
UFC Picks
Shevchenko is the superior fighter and will probably get this win, but I don't lay big prices and I am not laying 4-1 on Shevchenko. One thing to note is that this fight is scheduled for five rounds and I think that gives us some value on the total, so I will take the fight to go under 4.5 rounds.
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 Card & Odds
Welterweight - Jorge Masvidal +335 vs. Kamaru Usman -439
Women's Strawweight - Rose Namajunas +173 vs. Zhang Weili -210
Women's Flyweight - Jessica Andrade +322 vs. Valentina Shevchenko -419
Middleweight - Chris Weidman -127 vs. Uriah Hall +103
Light Heavyweight - Anthony Smith +162 vs. Jimmy Crute -196
Bantamweight - Kevin Natividad +154 vs. Danaa Batgerel -186
Middleweight - Karl Roberson +118 vs. Brendan Allen -142
Flyweight - Jeffrey Molina -107 vs. Qileng Aori -117
Women's Strawweight - Na Liang +162 vs. Ariane Carnelossi -196
Lightweight - Rodrigo Vargas +201 vs. Zhu Rong -250
Welterweight - Alex Oliveira +134 vs. Randy Brown -162
Welterweight - Stefan Sekulic +200 vs. Dwight Grant -245
Bantamweight - Jamey Simmons vs. Johnny Munoz
Featherweight - Patrick Sabatini -225 vs. Tristan Connelly +184
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