Max Griffin is favored against Carlos Condit at UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 on Saturday, July 10 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN/ESPN+ portion of the preliminary card. Condit is 32-13 in his career, while Griffin is 17-8 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card on UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3, with the headliner a bout between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Condit and Griffin and UFC predictions.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Betting
Carlos Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC)
Condit came into the UFC with a record of 23-4 and he has nine wins and nine losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has two wins and four losses. He defeated Court McGee by unanimous decision and Matt Brown by unanimous decision; while losing to Demian Maia by rear-naked choke submission, Neil Magny by unanimous decision, Alex Oliveira by guillotine choke submission, and Michael Chiesa by kimura submission. Condit has been a pro since 2002 and he has 15 wins by TKO/KO and 13 by submission. He has 21 first round finishes.
Max Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC)
Griffin came into the UFC with a record of 12-2 and he has five wins and six losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Zelim Imadaev by majority decision, Ramiz Brahimaj by TKO, and Song Kenan by KO; while losing to Thiago Alves by split decision, Alex Morono by unanimous decision, and Alex Oliveira by split decision. Griffin has been a pro since 2009 and he has nine wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has seven first round finishes.
Griffin said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about his upcoming fight against Condit, “I’m adding new things, but my stuff’s working,” Griffin said. “My recipe is working. Yeah, I’m adding new things, but what I’m doing is working, it’s effective. I feel like ‘Salt Bae’ now. My recipe’s good, I’m throwing the stuff on top, and it’s going to be a masterpiece. July 10 will be my next greatest performance to date, I promise you. I have no doubts, 100 percent confidence.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Condit 3.63/ Griffin 4.14
Striking Accuracy: Condit 39% / Griffin 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Condit 2.49/ Griffin 3.94
Defense: Condit 56% / Griffin 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Condit 0.62/ Griffin 1.70
Takedown Accuracy: Condit 54% / Griffin 51%
Takedowns defended: Condit 39% / Griffin 66%
Submission average: Condit 1.0/ Griffin 0.5
UFC Picks
I lean a little bit toward Griffin, but I have a lot of respect for Condit and I don’t know that I want to lay the 2-1 price. The rounds on this fight is 2.5 and the over is -210. There is no doubt the value is on the under, so I will take the big price and go under the rounds total in this contest.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Card & Odds
Lightweight - Dustin Poirier -142 vs. Conor McGregor +112
Welterweight - Gilbert Burns +131 vs. Stephen Thompson -165
Featherweight - Ryan Hall +190 vs. Ilia Topuria -245
Women’s Flyweight - Jessica Eye +146 vs. Jennifer Maia -185
Flyweight - Jerome Rivera +273 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov -370
Middleweight - Brad Tavares -170 vs. Omari Akhmedov +135
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy +105 vs. Tai Tuivasa -135
Middleweight - Dricus du Plessis -120 vs. Trevin Giles -110
Women’s Bantamweight - Yana Kunitskaya -110 vs. Irene Aldana -120
Middleweight - Yaozong Hu +110 vs. Alen Amedovski -140
Welterweight - Niko Price +131 vs. Michel Pereira -165
Welterweight - Max Griffin -190 vs. Carlos Condit +150
Bantamweight - Kris Moutinho +524 vs. Sean O'Malley -850
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