UFC 278: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold Odds

Paulo Costa is favored against Luke Rockhold at UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 on Saturday, August 20 in Salt Lake City, Utah. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Costa is 13-2 in his career, while Rockhold is 16-5 in his career. There are a total of 13 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN/ESPN+ and four on ESPN/ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2. Let’s look at the bout between Costa and Rockhold and UFC predictions.

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 takes place at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, August 20 with 13 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN/ESPN+ and four on ESPN/ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards II Betting

Paulo Costa (13-2, 5-2 UFC)

Costa came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has five wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Garreth McLellan by TKO, Oluwale Bamgbose by TKO, Johny Hendricks by TKO, Uriah Hall by TKO, and Yoel Romero by unanimous decision; while losing to Israel Adesanya by TKO and Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision. Costa has been a pro since 2012 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.

Luke Rockhold (16-5, 6-4 UFC)

Rockhold came into the UFC with a record of 10-1 and he has six wins and four losses in the UFC. He defeated Costas Philippou by TKO, Tim Boetsch by inverted triangle kimura submission, Michael Bisping by guillotine choke submission, Lyoto Machida by rear-naked choke submission, Chris Weidman by TKO, and David Branch by TKO; while losing to Vitor Belfort by KO, Michael Bisping by KO, Yoel Romero by KO, and Jan Blachowicz by KO. Rockhold has been a pro since 2007 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and eight by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.

Rockhold said this to mmafighting.com about his upcoming fight against Costa, “I’m not looking to do anything but just to be myself. When I’m relaxed and I have confidence in myself and I’m just happy and have fun, that’s when you see the Luke Rockhold that everyone really came to love in the first place. These last few years, four or five years, it’s not really been me, and you can see the shift…So for me, just being myself, relaxing, finding my openings. I think this guy knows he’s got to come for me, and I’m going to hurt him every time he comes, and I’m going to put him down.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Costa 6.85 / Rockhold 4.18

Striking Accuracy: Costa 59% / Rockhold 48%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Costa 7.02 / Rockhold 2.43

Defense: Costa 48% / Rockhold 56%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Costa 0.21 / Rockhold 0.67

Takedown Accuracy: Costa 50% / Rockhold 30%

Takedowns defended: Costa 80% / Rockhold 68%

Submission average: Costa 0.0 / Rockhold 1.1

UFC Picks

The first thing that really sticks out to me in this fight is the price. Is Costa really good enough to be laying more than 3-1 against Rockhold?Costa has only lost twice in this career, but I don’t know that he is a superstar fighter who can be trusted. Rockhold is definitely not a slouch, as he has a similar record to Costa. The question is whether Rockhold has his head right and is ready for a big effort. Based on what Rockhold has said I would lean to yes. I think there are two things we can do with this fight. First, we can take Rockhold at the big price and hope he pulls off the upset. Second, we can make a play on the rounds going under 2.5. I can’t see this fight going to a decision so laying the price and taking the rounds to go under looks to be the best bet in this fight. And we’ll also take a flyer on Rockhold to win at the big price.

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards II Card & Odds

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