UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Odds

Kamaru Usman is favored against Leon Edwards at UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 on Saturday, March 18 in London, England. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Edwards is 20-3 in his career, while Usman is 20-2 in his career. There are a total of 15 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ ESPN+, and six on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3. Let’s look at the bout between Edwards and Usman and UFC predictions.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 takes place at The O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday, March 18 with 15 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ ESPN+, and six on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman III Betting

Leon Edwards (20-3, 12-2 UFC)

Edwards came into the UFC with a record of 8-1 and he has 12 wins and two losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has six wins and no losses. He defeated Peter Sobotta by TKO, Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision, Gunnar Nelson by split decision, Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision, Nate Diaz by unanimous decision, and Kamaru Usman by KO. Edwards’ last loss in his career was against Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision in December of 2015. Edwards has been a pro since 2011 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has four first round finishes.

Edwards said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about his upcoming fight against Usman, “Right, for him, the fight was going his way, what does he change? The way he fought me last is the way he fights. I can’t see him in the space of five, six months now being a totally different fighter. I just can’t see it happening. …A knockout affects everyone different. He’s what now, 35, 36 years old? Coming off a knockout and fighting the same guy who’s just knocked him out, so let’s see how he comes back and how he reacts. This will be his first time actually fighting in someone’s backyard. This is my hometown show. I’ve never lost in the UK. I use the crowd as energy. I just can’t see how he goes out there and defeats me.”

Kamaru Usman (20-2, 15-1 UFC)

Usman came into the UFC with a record of 5-1 and he has 15 wins and one loss in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Colby Covington by TKO, Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision, Gilbert Burns by TKO, Jorge Masvidal by KO, and Colby Covington by unanimous decision; while losing to Leon Edwards by KO in August of last year. Usman has been a pro since 2012 and he has nine wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has three first round finishes.

Stephen Thompson said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about the upcoming fight between Edwards and Usman, “Well, looking back at the last fight; Usman was winning the majority of the rounds. Leon got the first one. It was amazing, because you never saw Usman getting taken down before and controlled on the ground. Leon did that. After that round, it was all Usman up until the point of he got knocked out. Now, do I think Leon could set it up again? I do. But on paper I have Usman winning this fight, just because he was dominating the last one until he just wasn’t. And it’s harder to pull something off again for the second time. It’s going to be very, very difficult.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Edwards 2.59 / Usman 4.55

Striking Accuracy: Edwards 50% / Usman 53%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Edwards 2.28 / Usman 2.56

Defense: Edwards 53% / Usman 57%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Edwards 1.39 / Usman 3.01

Takedown Accuracy: Edwards 33% / Usman 48%

Takedowns defended: Edwards 68% / Usman 97%

Submission average: Edwards 0.4 / Usman 0.1

UFC Picks

I have to agree with Thompson in that it is hard to see Edwards doing what he did last time against Usman. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. The problem I have in this fight is I don’t like laying more than 2-1. I definitely lean toward taking Usman and I think the rounds will go over, so perhaps a parlay on Usman and the rounds to over 4.5 is the best choice.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman III Card & Odds

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