Tom Aspinall is slightly favored against Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira on Saturday, November 11 in New York City, New York. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Aspinall is 13-3 in his career, while Pavlovich is 18-1 in his career. There are a total of 13 fights with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira. Let’s look at the bout between Aspinall and Pavlovich and UFC predictions.
UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York on Saturday, November 11 with 13 fights with five Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira Betting
Tom Aspinall (13-3, 6-1 UFC)
Aspinall came into the UFC with a record of 7-2 and he has six wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Jake Collier by TKO, Alan Baudot by TKO, Andrei Arlovski by rear-naked choke submission, Serghei Spivak by TKO, Alexander Volkov by straight armbar submission, and Marcin Tybura by TKO; while losing to Curtis Blaydes by TKO. Aspinall has been a pro since 2014 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Aspinall said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against “He is the most dangerous guy in the UFC, in my opinion, to get into a shootout with. To stand flatfooted with him and start trading, and have an ego competition with him, that's what a lot of the guys are doing with him, and that's not what I'm going to do.”
Aspinall also said this to dailymail.co.uk about his upcoming fight against Pavlovich, “I've said all along that I think Pavlovich is the most dangerous man in the UFC. You can't even look at his fights because they've been so quick and say, “this is where he's bad”, because he's just steamrolling people. I can't really pick out any weak points at the moment. I've got the shortest fight time average in the UFC, he's got the second shortest fight time average in the UFC, that's an absolutely insane stat! Someone is getting finished; it is inevitable, goes without saying.”
Sergei Pavlovich (18-1, 6-1 UFC)
Pavlovich came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has six wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Marcelo Golm by KO, Maurice Greene by TKO, Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, Derrick Lewis by TKO, Tai Tuivasa by KO, and Curtis Blaydes by TKO; while losing to Alistair Overeem by TKO. Pavlovich has been a pro since 2014 and he has 15 wins by TKO/KO and three by decision. He has 15 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Aspinall 7.65 / Pavlovich 8.72
Striking Accuracy: Aspinall 66% / Pavlovich 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Aspinall 2.90 / Pavlovich 4.33
Defense: Aspinall 65% / Pavlovich 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aspinall 3.70 / Pavlovich 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Aspinall 100% / Pavlovich 0%
Takedowns defended: Aspinall 100% / Pavlovich 75%
Submission average: Aspinall 1.9/ Pavlovich 0.0
UFC Picks
This fight should be a great one for as long as it lasts. The UFC odds on the fight are basically a pick. The rounds are listed at 1.5 and the under is more than a 2-1 favorite. There is no question that each of these two fighters has big-time power. If you go by the numbers, these two are among the best of all-time in terms of finishing power. It is no surprise that many people don’t think the fight will last long but I am going against conventional wisdom in this fight. It should be noted that neither of these two fighters has really been involved in a close fight. If these two are as good as advertised then it may take longer for one of them to get a finish. We get +168 on the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and that is the way I am going to go.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 11/11 |
Jiri Prochazka |
+100 |
| Alex Pereira |
-130 |
| 11/11 |
Tom Aspinall |
-120 |
| Sergei Pavlovich |
-110 |
| 11/11 |
Diego Lopes |
-105 |
| Pat Sabatini |
-125 |
| 11/11 |
Jessica Andrade |
+154 |
| Mackenzie Dern |
-195 |
| 11/11 |
Matt Frevola |
+181 |
| Benoit Saint-Denis |
-233 |
| 11/11 |
Tabatha Ricci |
+141 |
| Loopy Godinez |
-177 |
| 11/11 |
John Castaneda |
-145 |
| Kyung Ho Kang |
+115 |
| 11/11 |
Dennis Buzukja |
+204 |
| Jamall Emmers |
-265 |
| 11/11 |
Mark Madsen |
+154 |
| Jared Gordon |
-195 |
| 11/11 |
Viacheslav Borshchev |
+110 |
| Nazim Sadykhov |
-140 |
| 11/11 |
Kevin Borjas |
+181 |
| Joshua Van |
-233 |
| 11/11 |
Alessandro Costa |
+143 |
| Steve Erceg |
-180 |
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