Alexandre Pantoja is favored against Steve Erceg at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg on Saturday, May 4 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Pantoja is 27-5 in his career, while Erceg is 12-1 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View and nine on ESPN2/ESPN+ at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg. Let’s look at the bout between Pantoja and Erceg and UFC predictions.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday, May 4 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View and nine on ESPN2/ESPN+.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting
Alexandre Pantoja (27-5, 11-3 UFC)
Pantoja came into the UFC with a record of 16-2 and he has l1 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Manel Kape by unanimous decision, Brandon Royval by rear-naked choke submission, Alex Perez by neck crank submission, Brandon Moreno by split decision, and Brandon Royval by unanimous decision; while losing to Askar Askarov by unanimous decision. Pantoja has been a pro since 2007 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and 10 by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.
Steve Erceg (12-1, 3-0 UFC)
Erceg came into the UFC with a record of 9-1 and he has three wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated David Dvorák by unanimous decision, Alessandro Costa by unanimous decision, and Matt Schnell by KO. Erceg’s only loss in his career was against Sean Gauci by unanimous decision in September of 2017. Erceg has been a pro since 2016 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Erceg said this to sportskeeda.com about his upcoming fight against Pantoja, “He really embodies determination, that sort of thing. He's walking forward, doesn't matter how tired he gets, he's going to keep pushing. But I do think, technically, he's lacking in some areas and I'm going to exploit those areas to the best of my ability and come away as the new champion.”
Erceg also said this to bloodyelbow.com about his upcoming fight against Pantoja, “I think the biggest (thing to be wary of) is how mentally strong he is, he’s going to keep coming forward, doesn’t matter if he gets tired, doesn’t matter what’s happening in the fight, he’s looking for a way to win at all times, that’s a dangerous guy. He’s a world champion for a reason, I’m not going to be able to put him out of there easily, so I’m going to be trying to break him down and looking for ways to get him out of there, but at the end of the day it’s going to be a tough fight and I’m willing to go to pretty dark and bad places and I know he is, so it’s going to be fun.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Pantoja 4.32 / Erceg 4.57
Striking Accuracy: Pantoja 49% / Erceg 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Pantoja 3.90 / Erceg 3.64
Defense: Pantoja 50% / Erceg 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Pantoja 2.20/ Erceg 1.69
Takedown Accuracy: Pantoja 48% / Erceg 30%
Takedowns defended: Pantoja 67% / Erceg 77%
Submission average: Pantoja 1.0/ Erceg 0.8
UFC Picks
Pantoja is the UFC flyweight champion and already one of the best the division has ever seen. He has the third-most wins in UFC flyweight history and is third with the most finishes. Pantoja can simply do it all, as he is an excellent striker and his submission game is strong. Erceg is getting a quick shot at the title, as he only has three UFC fights. Erceg is also well rounded, as he lands 4.57 strikes per minute and he has shown very good takedown defense.
Maybe Erceg is good enough to be in the same conversation as Pantoja but he will have to prove it. We know that Pantoja is an excellent fighter and by far the best Erceg has faced. I’ll lay the price and take Pantoja to get the win.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 05/04 |
Steve Erceg |
+150 |
| Alexandre Pantoja |
-190 |
| 05/04 |
Jose Aldo |
+131 |
| Jonathan Martinez |
-165 |
| 05/04 |
Vitor Petrino |
-550 |
| Anthony Smith |
+379 |
| 05/04 |
Caio Borralho |
-550 |
| Paul Craig |
+379 |
| 05/04 |
Joanderson Brito |
-170 |
| Jack Shore |
+135 |
| 05/04 |
Iasmin Lucindo |
-430 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
+310 |
| 05/04 |
Myktybek Orolbai |
-275 |
| Elves Brener |
+211 |
| 05/04 |
William Gomis |
+116 |
| Jean Silva |
-146 |
| 05/04 |
Joaquim Silva |
+135 |
| Drakkar Klose |
-170 |
| 05/04 |
Jamie Mullarkey |
+140 |
| Mauricio Ruffy |
-176 |
| 05/04 |
Ernesta Kareckaite |
+168 |
| Dione Barbosa |
-215 |
| 05/04 |
Vinc Pichel |
+362 |
| Ismael Bonfim |
-520 |
| 05/04 |
Kevin Borjas |
+110 |
| Alessandro Costa |
-140 |
| 05/04 |
Ihor Potieria |
+405 |
| Michel Pereira |
-600 |
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