Jonathan Martinez is slightly favored against Jose Aldo at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg on Saturday, May 4 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Martinez is 19-4 in his career, while Aldo is 31-8 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View and nine on ESPN2/ESPN+ at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg. Let’s look at the bout between Martinez and Aldo and UFC predictions.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday, May 4 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View and nine on ESPN2/ESPN+.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting
Jonathan Martinez (19-4, 10-3 UFC)
Martinez came into the UFC with a record of 9-1 and he has 10 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has six wins and no losses. He defeated Zviad Lazishvili by unanimous decision, Alejandro Pérez by unanimous decision, Vince Morales by unanimous decision, Cub Swanson by TKO, Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, and Adrian Yanez by TKO. Martinez’s last loss in his career was against Davey Grant by KO in March of 2021. Martinez has been a pro since 2014 and he has nine wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Jose Aldo (31-8, 13-7 UFC)
Aldo came into the UFC with a record of 18-1 and has 13 wins and seven wins losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Marlon Vera by unanimous decision, Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision, and Rob Font by unanimous decision; while losing to Marlon Moraes by split decision, Petr Yan by TKO, and Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision. Aldo has been a pro since 2004 and he has 17 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Aldo said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about his upcoming fight against Martinez, “He’s a very tough opponent, and I think he has what, two wins by leg kicks? I’m a specialist at what I do, and you’re always going to face people that do the same thing that you do, but that’s what I’m known for, my leg kicks. I’m really prepared to go in there and do my best and do what I train to do.”
Aldo’s Muay Thai coach Emerson Falcao said this to bjpenn.com about the upcoming fight between Martinez and Aldo, “Aldo’s opponent is going to be Jonathan Martinez, he’s a tough opponent. He has a good kick, he’s very versatile. So, we tried to build the camp around that. Jose Aldo is very well-trained and, more importantly, motivated. He’s looking for the knockout, wanting to fight, wanting to brawl. On May 4, we can only expect a brutal victory, via knockout.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Martinez 4.64 / Aldo 3.57
Striking Accuracy: Martinez 50% / Aldo 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Martinez 3.76/ Aldo 3.74
Defense: Martinez 58% / Aldo 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Martinez 0.44/ Aldo 0.49
Takedown Accuracy: Martinez 41% / Aldo 54%
Takedowns defended: Martinez 69% / Aldo 91%
Submission average: Martinez 0.1/ Aldo 0.1
UFC Picks
The first thing we have to consider in this fight is the fact that Aldo has not fought in almost two years. He is coming out of retirement for this fight and he has not won a fight since December of 2021. I know that fighters can still have talent in the latter part of their careers, but Aldo is 37 years old and it is not like he was in great form when he retired, losing four of his last seven fights. Martinez is a very good fighter and probably underrated in the UFC. Martinez is listed as a -165 favorite in UFC betting odds and those odds may actually be too low, as Martinez has won his last six fights. Aldo is a recognizable name, but Martinez is simply the better fighter at this point in their respective careers. I’ll take Martinez to get the win.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 05/04 |
Steve Erceg |
+150 |
| Alexandre Pantoja |
-190 |
| 05/04 |
Jose Aldo |
+131 |
| Jonathan Martinez |
-165 |
| 05/04 |
Vitor Petrino |
-550 |
| Anthony Smith |
+379 |
| 05/04 |
Caio Borralho |
-550 |
| Paul Craig |
+379 |
| 05/04 |
Joanderson Brito |
-170 |
| Jack Shore |
+135 |
| 05/04 |
Iasmin Lucindo |
-430 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
+310 |
| 05/04 |
Myktybek Orolbai |
-275 |
| Elves Brener |
+211 |
| 05/04 |
William Gomis |
+116 |
| Jean Silva |
-146 |
| 05/04 |
Joaquim Silva |
+135 |
| Drakkar Klose |
-170 |
| 05/04 |
Jamie Mullarkey |
+140 |
| Mauricio Ruffy |
-176 |
| 05/04 |
Ernesta Kareckaite |
+168 |
| Dione Barbosa |
-215 |
| 05/04 |
Vinc Pichel |
+362 |
| Ismael Bonfim |
-520 |
| 05/04 |
Kevin Borjas |
+110 |
| Alessandro Costa |
-140 |
| 05/04 |
Ihor Potieria |
+405 |
| Michel Pereira |
-600 |
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