Sean Strickland is favored against Paulo Costa at UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier on Saturday, June 1 in Newark, New Jersey. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Strickland is 28-6 in his career, including 15-6 in the UFC, while Costa is 14-3 in his career, including 6-3 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and three on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier. Let’s look at the bout between Strickland and Costa and UFC predictions.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier takes place at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday, June 1 with 12 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and three on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Betting
Sean Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC)
Strickland came into the UFC with a record of 13-0 and he has 15 wins and six losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Israel Adesanya by unanimous decision, Abusupiyan Magomedov by TKO, and Nassourdine Imavov by unanimous decision; while losing to Dricus du Plessis by split decision, Jared Cannonier by split decision, and Alex Pereira by KO. Strickland has been a pro since 2008 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Strickland said to the media that he expects this fight to be a long war. “UFC 302, man, it's going to be a bloodbath. I think that me and Costa, we're going to go in the deep water.” Strickland said to the media, “It's going to be a 25-minute war…..But mentally, as always, I'm ready to die for what I want. And I think I'm going to pick him apart.”
Coach Eric Nicksick said this to bjpenn.com about the upcoming fight between Strickland and Costa, “(Paulo)’s a menace when he gets your back up to the cage when he gets you backed up the barrier. That’s when I think his name ‘The Eraser’ is very prevalent and he’s looking to put your lights out. So it’s going to be important to not back yourself up in the cage. He’s very, very good there, very dynamic. When you watched him with Robert Whittaker, the kicks come from anywhere, but they come fast, too. So we got to make sure that (Sean’s) not in the position where he’s leaning, or in a bad spot position-wise.”
Paulo Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC)
Costa came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has six wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Luke Rockhold by unanimous decision, Yoel Romero by unanimous decision, Uriah Hall by TKO, Johny Hendricks by TKO, Oluwale Bamgbose by TKO, and Garreth McLellan by TKO; while losing to Robert Whittaker by unanimous decision, Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision, and Israel Adesanya by TKO. Costa has been a pro since 2012 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Costa has brought in boxers Kelson Pinto and Edvaldo ‘Badola’ Gonzaga for his training. “I met Kelson Pinto at the UFC PI (when) I was killing myself while I trained,” said Costa to the media, and “Edvaldo Badola (Gonzaga) is a boxing coach as well; same lineage as Kelson and he was an Olympic athlete as well… So, we are just trying to mix the styles to get the best point of each one.
Costa said to the media that his boxing coaches have been a big help. “He (Strickland) knows how to fight very well (and) to have a great boxing coach on my side will help out a lot, especially with him, because he’s basically a boxer fighting in MMA… I have a good strategy to beat him.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Strickland 5.91 / Costa 6.20
Striking Accuracy: Strickland 41% / Costa 58%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Strickland 4.33 / Costa 6.38
Defense: Strickland 62% / Costa 47%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Strickland 0.85/ Costa 0.45
Takedown Accuracy: Strickland 64% / Costa 75%
Takedowns defended: Strickland 77% / Costa 80%
Submission average: Strickland 0.2/ Costa 0.0
UFC Picks
Strickland is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite in UFC odds to win this fight with the rounds listed at 4.5 and the under at -140. I lean a little bit to Costa simply because I think the odds in this fight should be closer to a pick. I also think it will be a war where neither fighter gets the finish, so I will go over the rounds total of 4.5 at plus money.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 06/01 | Dustin Poirier | +456 |
| Islam Makhachev | -700 |
| 06/01 | Paulo Costa | +186 |
| Sean Strickland | -240 |
| 06/01 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | +140 |
| Randy Brown | -177 |
| 06/01 | Roman Kopylov | -103 |
| César Almeida | -127 |
| 06/01 | Alex Morono | -240 |
| Niko Price | +186 |
| 06/01 | Alexander Romanov | +211 |
| Jailton Almeida | -275 |
| 06/01 | Bassil Hafez | -365 |
| Mickey Gall | +270 |
| 06/01 | Jake Matthews | -165 |
| Philip Rowe | +131 |
| 06/01 | Joe Solecki | +360 |
| Grant Dawson | -515 |
| 06/01 | Joselyne Edwards | +154 |
| Ailín Pérez | -195 |
| 06/01 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | +221 |
| Kevin Holland | -290 |
| 06/01 | Mitch Raposo | +197 |
| Andre Lima | -255 |
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