UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Odds

Diego Lopes is favored against Brian Ortega at UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 on Saturday, June 29 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Ortega is 16-3 in his career, including 8-3 in the UFC, while Lopes is 24-6 in his career, including 3-1 in the UFC. There are a total of 13 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN/ESPN+, and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2. Let’s look at the bout between Ortega and Lopes and UFC predictions.

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, June 29 with 13 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN/ESPN+, and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka II Betting

Brian Ortega (16-3, 8-3 UFC)

Ortega came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has eight wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Thiago Tavares by TKO, Diego Brandão by triangle choke submission, Clay Guida by KO, Renato Moicano by guillotine choke submission, Cub Swanson by guillotine choke submission, Frankie Edgar by KO, Jung Chan-sung by unanimous decision, and Yair Rodríguez by arm-triangle choke submission; while losing to Max Holloway by TKO, Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision, and Yair Rodríguez by TKO. Ortega has been a pro since 2010 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and eight by submission. He has four first round finishes.

Diego Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC)

Lopes came into the UFC with a record of 21-5 and he has three wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Gavin Tucker by armbar submission, Pat Sabatini by KO, and Sodiq Yusuf by TKO; while losing to Movsar Evloev by unanimous decision. Lopes has been a pro since 2012 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and 12 by submission. He has 15 first round finishes.

Lopes said this to sportskeeda.com about his upcoming fight against Ortega, “I think if the fight goes to the ground, he’s a black belt, I’m a black belt and both of us have the skills necessary to neutralize each other, but also the ability to test each other’s strengths… I definitely think this could define who’s got the best jiu-jitsu in the division. I remember when I got to the UFC and I was climbing up the division, many were already asking for this fight. Not right now, but in the future to see who’s got the best jiu-jitsu. I think this comes at a great moment, a pay-per-view card, International Fight Week, co-main event – what a great moment to see who’s got the best jiu-jitsu. It’s going to be a war. I think the chances are really big (that I get a title shot with a win). Imagine if I defeat Ortega and see how the rankings change, I’ll be really high in the rankings, without a doubt I’ll be in the conversation to be next in line... If I win in a solid way like I finished the last ones, I believe there’s no doubt that I will deserve a title shot.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Ortega 4.07 / Lopes 3.22

Striking Accuracy: Ortega 38% / Lopes 58%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Ortega 6.54 / Lopes 4.73

Defense: Ortega 49% / Lopes 37%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Ortega 1.17/ Lopes 0.00

Takedown Accuracy: Ortega 27% / Lopes 0%

Takedowns defended: Ortega 57% / Lopes 42%

Submission average: Ortega 1.2/ Lopes 5.0

UFC Picks

Lopes is listed as a slight favorite in UFC betting odds for this fight. Whether those odds are justified is questionable, especially considering what Lopes has said about his strategy for this bout. Lopes believes that he has the ability to win this fight on the mat, but I don’t think so. The best chance for Lopes would be to turn this into a striking battle, but Lopes seems out to prove he can submit Ortega. I don’t see it. Maybe it is all just talk and Lopes will show some intelligence, but it sure doesn’t sound like it. I’ll take Ortega at plus money to get the win.

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka II Card & Odds

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