Tom Aspinall is heavily favored against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 on Saturday, July 27 in Manchester, England. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Aspinall is 14-3 in his career, including 7-1 in the UFC, while Blaydes is 18-4 in his career, including 13-4 in the UFC. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and five on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2. Let’s look at the bout between Aspinall and Blaydes and UFC predictions.
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 takes place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England on Saturday, July 27 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and five on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad II Betting
Tom Aspinall (14-3, 7-1 UFC)
Aspinall came into the UFC with a record of 7-2 and he has seven wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Jake Collier by TKO, Alan Baudot by TKO, Andrei Arlovski by rear-naked choke submission, Serghei Spivac by TKO, Alexander Volkov by straight armbar submission, Marcin Tybura by TKO, and Sergei Pavlovich by KO; while losing to Curtis Blaydes by TKO in July of 2022. Aspinall has been a pro since 2014 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 13 first round finishes.
Aspinall said this to bloodyelbow.com about his upcoming fight against Blaydes, “I feel like we’ve both evolved since the first fight. No two fights are the same. I’ll have a similar game plan, but I’m just going to go out there, move around, and see what happens. You never know how it’s going to go until fight night, so I’m ready for anything.”
Curtis Blaydes (18-4, 13-4 UFC)
Blaydes came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has 13 wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has four wins and two losses. He defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik by unanimous decision, Chris Daukaus by TKO, Tom Aspinall by TKO, and Jailton Almeida by KO; while losing to Derrick Lewis by KO and Sergei Pavlovich by TKO. Blaydes has been a pro since 2014 and he has 13 wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Blaydes said this bjpenn.com about his upcoming fight against Aspinall, “Conditioning (has been the focus in camp). That’s the same old. I don’t adjust for anyone; I have prepared for this fight the same way I prepare for everyone. I don’t like to add extra adjustments, extra things to think about. There’s already a whole lot, we don’t need to add anything else. Just a normal, standard fight camp. Eight weeks of sparring, drilling, running, icing; normal stuff.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Aspinall 7.72 / Blaydes 3.53
Striking Accuracy: Aspinall 66% / Blaydes 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Aspinall 2.77 / Blaydes 1.83
Defense: Aspinall 66% / Blaydes 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aspinall 3.46/ Blaydes 5.72
Takedown Accuracy: Aspinall 100% / Blaydes 53%
Takedowns defended: Aspinall 100% / Blaydes 31%
Submission average: Aspinall 1.7/ Blaydes 0.0
UFC Picks
These two fought about two years ago and the bout ended quickly when Aspinall suffered a knee injury. Aspinall has bounced back with dominating wins over Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall comes into this fight as the interim heavyweight world champion. The winner of this fight could be in line for a shot at Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic for the undisputed heavyweight title. Aspinall is listed as almost a 4-1 favorite in UFC betting odds to win this fight.
I lean to Aspinall in this fight but I am definitely not laying the big price in UFC odds. The rounds are listed at 1.5 with the under at -170. Both of these fighters are known as finishers, as all 32 of their combined victories have come by finish. One way or another we should get another finish in this fight, likely in the first round, so I’ll go under the rounds total.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 07/27 | Belal Muhammad | +197 |
| Leon Edwards | -255 |
| 07/27 | Curtis Blaydes | +270 |
| Tom Aspinall | -365 |
| 07/27 | Paddy Pimblett | -103 |
| Bobby Green | -127 |
| 07/27 | Manel Kape | +120 |
| Muhammad Mokaev | -150 |
| 07/27 | Giga Chikadze | +204 |
| Arnold Allen | -265 |
| 07/27 | Daniel Pineda | +313 |
| Nathaniel Wood | -435 |
| 07/27 | Bruna Brasil | +244 |
| Molly McCann | -325 |
| 07/27 | Lukasz Brzeski | +215 |
| Mick Parkin | -281 |
| 07/27 | Preston Parsons | -140 |
| Oban Elliott | +110 |
| 07/27 | Christian Leroy Duncan | -145 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | +114 |
| 07/27 | Kiefer Crosbie | +273 |
| Sam Patterson | -370 |
| 07/27 | Marcin Prachnio | +123 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | -154 |
| 07/27 | Caolan Loughran | -217 |
| Jake Hadley | +170 |
| 07/27 | Alice Ardelean | +143 |
| Shauna Bannon | -180 |
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