UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds

Alexa Grasso is slightly favored against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili on Saturday, September 14 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Grasso is 16-3-1 in her career, while Shevchenko is 23-4-1 in her career. There are a total of 10 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and one on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili. Let’s look at the bout between Grasso and Shevchenko and UFC predictions.

UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili takes place at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, September 14 with 10 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and one on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting

Alexa Grasso (16-3-1, 8-3-1 UFC)

Grasso came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and she has eight wins, three losses, and one draw in the UFC. She defeated Heather Jo Clark by unanimous decision, Randa Markos by split decision, Karolina Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision, Kim Ji-yeon by unanimous decision, Maycee Barber by unanimous decision, Joanne Wood by rear-naked choke submission, Viviane Araújo by unanimous decision, and Valentina Shevchenko by face crank submission; while losing to Felice Herrig by unanimous decision, Tatiana Suarez by rear-naked choke submission, and Carla Esparza by majority decision, and fighting to a draw against Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso has been a pro since 2012 and she has four wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. She has five first round finishes.

Grasso said this to mmamania.com about her upcoming fight against Shevchenko, “Since I moved to the Flyweight division, she’s been the goal. She’s been on my radar so long, so I don’t mind. This fight can be like two things: If she wins, she needs to give me another shot. If I win, I think that it’s over. It’s 50/50. Anything can happen in a fight. I don’t know, maybe [we fight for a fourth time]. It’s a lot of a challenge. We’ve shared 45 minutes in the Octagon together. We know what it’s [like] to be in there with each one of us, and I love that. I love that we are so competitive. We are so professional. UFC doesn’t do things just because. We are here for a reason, and we are showing that women’s MMA is growing so much, and I love that every single fight we had is amazing. So this third fight, the first one was cool, the second one was cooler, imagine how it’s going to be in the third one.”

Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1, 12-3-1 UFC)

Shevchenko came into the UFC with a record of 11-1 and she has 12 wins, three losses, and one draw in the UFC. In her last six fights, she has four wins, one loss, and one draw. She defeated Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision, Jessica Andrade by TKO, Lauren Murphy by TKO, and Taila Santos by split decision; while fighting Alexa Grasso twice with once losing by face crank submission and once fighting to a draw. Shevchenko has been a pro since 2003 and she has eight wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. She has seven first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Grasso 4.67 / Shevchenko 3.28

Striking Accuracy: Grasso 43% / Shevchenko 52%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Grasso 3.95 / Shevchenko 2.11

Defense: Grasso 58% / Shevchenko 62%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Grasso 0.41/ Shevchenko 2.56

Takedown Accuracy: Grasso 45% / Shevchenko 63%

Takedowns defended: Grasso 59% / Shevchenko 71%

Submission average: Grasso 0.6/ Shevchenko 0.4

UFC Picks

How often do two fighters face each other three straight times? That is what will happen on Saturday night and based on their previous two results there is one thing we know; this fight will be close. They fought to a draw almost a year ago to the day. Grasso was better in terms of striking, while Shevchenko was better on the mat. These two fighters know each other extremely well, so there shouldn’t be any surprises. Grasso is a slight favorite with the rounds listed at 4.5. I won’t even try to pick the winner of this fight that looks very even. I will instead simply look for another great bout that goes the distance and take the rounds to go over the UFC betting total.

UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Card & Odds

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