To the sports bettor, there is nothing more satisfying than winning on an upset bid. The bigger the score, the better the bragging rights. There’s just something about getting paid out more than what you put in that’s just so damn great.
Every year in the UFC is good for a few massive ‘dogs to pull through, and 2018 was no different. In our top 10 betting upsets of the year, we saw the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter dethroned, a literal last-second miracle win, and a few legends turn back back the clock. Let’s take a closer look and break down some lessons learned.
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UFC Betting at BookMaker.eu
1. Paul Craig +535 over Magomed Ankalaev (UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov)
2. Shogun Rua +350 over Tyson Pedro (UFC Fight Night: Dos Santo vs. Tuivasa)
3. Henry Cejudo +350 over Demetrious Johnson (UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2)
4. Alexander Hernandez +330 over Beneil Dariush (UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunistkaya)
5. Max Griffin +310 over Mike Perry (UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens)
6. Rogerio Nogueira +300 over Sam Alvey (UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders)
7. Jared Cannonier +300 over David Branch (UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis)
8. Don Madge +300 over Te Edwards (UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith)
9: Wu Yunan +300 over Lauren Mueller (UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2)
10. Derrick Lewis +270 over Francis Ngannou (UFC 225: Miocic vs. Cormier)*
What We Learned From Online UFC Betting
Never heard of Paul Craig? No biggie - he’s only the guy that owns the top spot for upset of the year. This dude was getting pieced up by newcomer Magomed Ankalaev, losing all three rounds and getting dropped in the third frame. With Ankalaev putting him to the mat in the final seconds and seemingly cruising to a win, Craig threw up a desperation triangle attempt with 10 seconds left...and forced a tap at 4:59 of the third round.
And guess what? He was on the last fight of his UFC contract, coming off a two-fight losing streak. There was a huge chance he’d have been cut and forced into early retirement, but Craig saved his career and earned a four-fight contract.
What did we learn? Nothing really. This was just one of those reminders that anything can happen in MMA, and that everybody has a puncher’s or grappler’s chance.
The second biggest upset of the year belongs to Shogun Rua, who scored a knockout win over prospect Tyson Pedro on the Aussie’s home soil. To the surprise of many fans and gamblers, the Brazilian hung tough against a much younger opponent. In retrospect, Pedro’s so-so striking and wrestling should have lowered his price. Still, I’m picking against Shogun against pretty much anyone in the top 15 - it’s tough to be an aging fighter inside the octagon.
Speaking of aging fighters, Rogerio Nogueira knocked out Sam Alvey at UFC Fight Night 137 as a +300 underdog. This should’ve been easier to see coming, as Alvey is a slow, lumbering guy that gets cracked a lot. Hindsight is always 20/20.
In the only championship fight on this list, Henry Cejudo shocked the world with a razor-thin split decision victory against Demetrious Johnson. The lesson here is that judges can make or break you. There were a lot of people that scored it in DJ’s favor, and the numbers would certainly back that claim - Johnson outlanded Cejudo 120-80. Though Mighty Mouse got taken down three times, Cejudo didn’t do anything with the position.
We should’ve believed the Alex Hernandez hype, but don’t feel bad if you didn’t expect him to beat Beneil Dariush. The young prospect was making his debut on short notice, and even his stellar wrestling background couldn’t make up for the fact that he was fighting an underrated, well-rounded vet in Dariush.
In the case of Max Griffin, the insight here is that serious bettors need to pay attention to all the finer details. Mike Perry’s one-dimensional nature had been getting worse, but his knockout power and name still made him a huge favorite. The fact that he was being cornered by his girlfriend, a tennis instructor by trade, should’ve been the icing on the cake.
The asterisk for the Derrick Lewis fight means there were a few bigger ‘dogs on the year, but we were all over The Black Beast as a great online bet. When two heavyweight knockout artists collide, the odds should be closer to a coin flip. Ngannou’s hype created an awesome price on Lewis.
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