No. 15 welterweight Leon Edwards (14-3, 5 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet Germany’s Peter Sobotta (17-5, 5 KOs, 10 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 127 on Saturday, March 17, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London England. The entire card streams live on UFC Fight Pass. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest betting tips, previews and predictions at BookMaker.eu now!
Leon Edwards is slowly, but surely climbing his way up the welterweight rankings. Currently 6-2 under the UFC banner, “Rocky” has reeled off four straight wins. This Saturday, he’ll get a chance to make it five in a row - in front of his countrymen in London, England. Hoping to spoil his homecoming is Germany’s Peter Sobotta, a solid fighter with a 4-1 octagon record.
Both guys are better than average fighters, but it’s going to be a challenge proving that they’re more than just prelim fighters. Edwards in particular has a shot to graduate into a higher tier, but Sobotta could snatch the No. 15 ranking from Rocky. There’s a lot at stake, career-wise, for both guys.
It should be a competitive matchup - so who should you back? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup, along with your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Leon Edwards vs. Peter Sobotta
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Coming Into the Scrap
Both guys own wins over notable names. Edwards only loss in his past seven fights came against Kamaru Usman, who is one of the better prospects at 170. But wins over Albert Tumenov - a fantastic striker - and Bryan Barberena - a tough submission specialist - shows that Edwards has top-10 potential in him.
Sobotta was cut from the UFC in 2010, after three straight losses inside the octagon. He spent time on the European regional circuit before he was called up again - and it was obvious he was a much improved fighter. His only loss came in the second stint came against Kyle Noke, but he most recently beat Ben Saunders - a respected vet.
Matchup Preview
Edwards started his career as a kickboxer, but he has improved all facets of his game. Against Tumenov, used his wrestling and grappling skills to stifle an explosive striker. That showed that he could fight in a variety of styles, though it seems he’s fallen in love with his wrestling. He’s still a very good potshotter from the outside, but his low output can be somewhat frustrating.
Statistically, Edwards lands 2.07 strikes per minute at a 47.35% clip. Defensively, he absorbs 2.03 strikes per minute and slips 55% of strikes aimed at him. While his wrestling is vastly improved, he only lands 1.6 per 15 minutes, with 31% accuracy. Takedowns are more a work of attrition for him.
Sobotta has taken the opposite route as Edwards. Entering the UFC as a submission specialist, it took extended stints at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand for the German to up his striking game. Now, he throws hard kicks from range, and has found confidence in his hands. That piercing jab is particularly good, and the southpaw backs it up with a solid straight left.
But where Sobotta really shines is on the mat. Against Nicolas Dalby, Sobotta was able to land four authoritative takedowns. Each time, Dalby stayed on his back as the German laid heavy on top of him from the top and maneuvered through his guard like an expert.
Statistically, Sobotta lands 2.36 strikes per minute with 40% accuracy. Defensively, he eats nearly three shots a minute but defends against 60% of strikes. Sobotta earns 1.89 takedowns a minute at a 36% clip. His takedown defense is a spectacular 85%.
UFC Betting Tips
Sobotta’s striking improvements should let him hang with Edwards on the feet, and his grappling is objectively better than Rocky’s. Though this will be close, we lean towards Sobotta to take the win. The rounds over is also a solid play, as their talent levels and skillsets are close.
UFC Odds Pick: Sobotta to win
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UFC Fight Night 127 takes place on Saturday, March 17, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London England. The entire card streams live on UFC Fight Pass.
