Former WSOF two-division champion David Branch (21-4, 5 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet middleweight veteran Thiago Santos (17-5, 12 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC Fight Night 128 on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting previews, predictions and picks now.
David Branch is finding out what it’s like to be a big fish in a shark-infested ocean. The former two-division WSOF champion had an 11-fight winning streak snapped by Luke Rockhold, and the talent gap between the two was clearly evident as Rockhold ended things quickly after getting rocked in the first round.
This Saturday, Branch will look to get back in the win column against Brazil’s Thiago Santos - a punishing striker with legit knockout power. With a win against the No. 8 Branch, Santos can climb inside the top 10 for the first time in his career. But taking out a dual threat like Branch is far easier said than done.
So does Branch bounce back, or does Santos crumble him like he’s done to his past four opponents? Most importantly, what are the best betting values for this fight? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down a good scrap.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
David Branch +171
Thiago Santos -211
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +155 / -195
Matchup Preview
Branch is a solid boxer with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, so he’s comfortable in pretty much any phase. In kickboxing matches, he shows good footwork that allows him to stick and move, and his left hand is a crusher. Along with his underrated offensive wrestling, Branch’s skills allowed him to dominate in the WSOF, but Rockhold showed that he’s not quite there with the cream of the crop.
At 36, we’re probably already seeing the best version of Branch. When he’s in his rhythm and landing his takedowns, Branch is a handful to deal with. But the lack of elite physical strength and athleticism caps his ceiling. And while he’s very good in many categories, he’s not truly great in any.
Santos is steadily garnering a rep as one of middleweight’s biggest hitters - with heavy hands and a flexible kicking game. While he could be more fluid in his overall striking style - he stands too tall and rigid - the Brazilian’s pressure and power can cause serious issues. He’s most comfortable when he’s coming forward and thumping with punch-kick combinations. All it takes is one look at his strikes landed per minute to get an idea of how much he loves to crack.
What Santos needs to avoid is getting into a grappling match with Branch. His 70.97% takedown defense is excellent, but Branch can be particularly crafty when it comes to getting a fight to the mat. Santos better drill his scrambles.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Branch 1.65 / Santos 4.56
Accuracy: Branch 40.6% / Santos 48.2%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Branch 1.55 / Santos 2.02
Defense: Branch 57.46% / Santos 66.11%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Branch 2.25 / Santos 0.42
Accuracy: Branch 34.38% / Santos 25%
Takedowns defended: Branch 42.86% / Santos 70.97%
Submission average: Branch 0 / Santos 0
UFC Odds Pick: Branch to win at +171
Branch should be fully aware that his best chance at winning this fight is to take Santos to the mat. A seriously liability on his back, Santos’ often lets opponents pass his guard with little resistance. Considering Branch’s BJJ black belt skills, it’s not hard to see the former WSOF champ locking Santos up on the ground en route to a decision victory.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on UFC Fight Night 128 takes place on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
